Aaron Jones Was Good, but Not Elite, in Fantasy

2018 FANTASY RECAP AND 2019 FANTASY PROJECTION

Aaron Jones had a good, but not elite, year in fantasy. He was the #80 ranked fantasy player this season and the #23 RB. He would be in the elite class of RBs if he had played more games. Based on average fantasy points he was the #15 RB. He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 5 games he averaged 15.4 fantasy points which was higher than his start (8.3 FP) and his ending average (11 FP). He is young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. His standard deviation divided by his average is 0.65 which is close to the league ratio. He averaged 12.1 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 29 fantasy points. Aaron Jones (2019 Season Projection: 166 Rush, 797 Yards, 8.2 TDs, 34 Rec, 252 Yards, 1.2 TDs) is projected to deliver comparable fantasy value in 2019 where his projection based rank has him as the #22 player at his position.

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STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON

He has demonstrated the solid year-to-year improvement that you look for in a younger player. His fantasy average improved by 70%.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points14671
FP Average12.17.1
Regular Season GP1210

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

Aaron Jones played in 12 games in 2018. He was the #23 ranked fantasy RB based on total fantasy points. He averaged 12.1 FP per game (#15 ranked based on average). His value goes up if he plays a full season. He is trending up based on improved per game fantasy ranking from 2017 to 2018. He is relatively weaker than stronger in more categories. The strengths are bolded below.

2017-2018FPRUSHRUSHYDRUSHTDRECRECYDRECTDFUML
Stats (22 Games)2162141177123522811
RB Rank#31#41#32#13#57#70#48#31
Average Stats9.89.753.50.551.610.40.050
RB Rank (Averages)#24#50#30#11#68#86#70#47
2018 SeasonFPRUSHRUSHYDRUSHTDRECRECYDRECTDFUML
Stats (12 Games)14613372982620611
RB Rank#23#34#23#11#36#38#26#33
Average Stats12.111.160.80.672.217.20.080.1
RB Rank (Averages)#15#34#20#10#37#39#42#52
2017 SeasonFPRUSHRUSHYDRUSHTDRECRECYDRECTDFUML
Stats (10 Games)7181448492200
RB Rank#50#53#41#25#76#119#166#1
Average Stats7.18.144.80.40.92.200
RB Rank (Averages)#42#53#32#20#88#131#1#1

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 13.2 points and on DraftKings it was 14.5 per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 4.1 and on FanDuel it was 4.1 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 27.3 and on FanDuel it was 24.8 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All13.2 ($6.4K)4 G, 5 B14.5 ($5.2K)4 G, 5 B
12/16 @CHI0.8 ($7.5K)-12.40.8 ($6.6K)-13.7
12/9 ATL18.1 ($7.5K)+4.919.6 ($7.2K)+5.1
12/2 ARI13.2 ($7.6K)--15.2 ($6.7K)--
11/25 @MIN16.8 ($6.5K)+3.618.3 ($6K)+3.8
11/15 @SEA24.8 ($6.5K)+11.627.3 ($5.7K)+12.8
11/11 MIA30.7 ($6.5K)+17.535.2 ($5K)+20.7
11/4 @NE7.6 ($5.8K)-5.68.6 ($4.1K)-5.9
10/28 @LAR15.6 ($5.8K)--16.6 ($4.1K)--
10/15 SF4.1 ($6.1K)-9.14.1 ($4.6K)-10.4
10/7 @DET6.9 ($6.1K)-6.37.9 ($4.3K)-6.6
9/30 BUF14.7 ($5.5K)--15.2 ($4.1K)--
9/23 @WAS5.2 ($5.9K)-85.7 ($4.3K)-8.8