AFC,NFC Champ Games: Bet on Saints and Chiefs to Cover -3.0 vs Rams and Patriots

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

The odds and our simulations favor the Saints over the Rams. The projected score is Saints 33 and Rams 27, and New Orleans is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Saints is -170 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Saints are 2-1. In these games the Saints averaged 38 points per game and the Rams 27. The projection based point spread is NO -5.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 7-7-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Saints have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Rams. The average point spread in these games was Rams -0.7 but the Saints won by an average of 10.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams56.526.827.239%39%27.3 (1 Win)
New Orleans Saints-3.029.732.661%61%38.0 (2 Wins)

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New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

The odds favor the Chiefs, and the sims are solidly on the Chiefs as well. The projected score is Chiefs 30 and Patriots 25, and Kansas City is winning 59% of the sims. At -167 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 63 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Chiefs to win. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Chiefs averaged 41 points per game and the Patriots 35. The computer would set the spread at KC -4.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 7-5-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Chiefs are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Patriots. The average point spread in these games was Patriots -1.8 but the Chiefs won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New England Patriots55.526.225.140%41%35.0 (1 Win)
Kansas City Chiefs-3.029.329.860%59%41.0 (1 Win)

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