Baltimore Ravens Have a 4% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Ravens 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. The computer gives them a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl making them a good value at 40/1, 2.4%. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 8.1% chance at 20/1, 4.8%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

Their 10 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +0.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. Their 75% home win percentage was as expected (69.6%). They won 50% on the road which was as expected (46.3%). Anyone who backed the Ravens in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +174 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -80 units risking 110 to win 100 (8-8 ATS). The Ravens have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, despite a lower offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games24.3 - 17.910-6, +1748-8, -807-9 56.2% Under
On Road21.5 - 18.64-4, +1165-3, +1703-5 62.5% Under
At Home27.1 - 17.26-2, -233-5, -2504-4 50% Over
12/30 CLE26-24Win +33ATS Loss -7Over 40.5
12/22 @LAC22-10Win +170Covered +4Under 42.5
12/16 TB20-12Win +25ATS Loss -8.5Under 44.5
12/9 @KC24-27Loss -100Covered +6.5Over 49
12/2 @ATL26-16Win +125Covered +2.5Under 46.5
11/25 OAK34-17Win +13Covered -13Over 42
11/18 CIN24-21Win +37ATS Loss -6.5Over 44
11/4 PIT16-23Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Under 47
10/28 @CAR21-36Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 44.5
10/21 NO23-24Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 49.5
10/14 @TEN21-0Win +71Covered -2.5Under 43.5
10/7 @CLE9-12Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 44.5
9/30 @PIT26-14Win +150Covered +3Under 51
9/23 DEN27-14Win +43Covered -5.5Under 46
9/13 @CIN23-34Loss -100ATS Loss -1Over 43.5
9/9 BUF47-3Win +26Covered -7.5Over 38.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.3 (#13)3.4% (#26)5.6 (#14)232 (#23)6.7 (#26)153 (#2)4.5 (#15)1.2 (#16)
On the Road21.5 (#21)2.8% (#26)5.5 (#10)254 (#15)6.6 (#25)133 (#5)4.2 (#21)1.6 (#21)
At Home27.1 (#10)3.9% (#20)5.6 (#15)210 (#29)6.8 (#24)172 (#2)4.7 (#8)0.9 (#6)
Last 4 Games23.0 (#12)3.0% (#25)5.9 (#7)165 (#28)7.0 (#17)224 (#1)5.3 (#4)1.2 (#10)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games17.9 (#2)3.4% (#4)5.3 (#2)228 (#5)6.3 (#3)83 (#4)3.7 (#3)1.1 (#22)
Road Games18.6 (#3)3.2% (#4)5.5 (#1)240 (#8)6.5 (#3)78 (#1)3.6 (#2)1.0 (#22)
Home Games17.2 (#4)3.7% (#13)5.2 (#4)216 (#5)6.1 (#2)88 (#5)3.8 (#6)1.1 (#22)
Last 4 Games18.2 (#7)3.4% (#10)5.8 (#14)273 (#26)6.9 (#16)70 (#3)3.6 (#4)2.0 (#2)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games24.3 - 17.910-6, +1748-8, -807-9 56.2% Under
On Road21.5 - 18.64-4, +1165-3, +1703-5 62.5% Under
At Home27.1 - 17.26-2, -233-5, -2504-4 50% Over
12/30 CLE26-24Win +33ATS Loss -7Over 40.5
12/22 @LAC22-10Win +170Covered +4Under 42.5
12/16 TB20-12Win +25ATS Loss -8.5Under 44.5
12/9 @KC24-27Loss -100Covered +6.5Over 49
12/2 @ATL26-16Win +125Covered +2.5Under 46.5
11/25 OAK34-17Win +13Covered -13Over 42
11/18 CIN24-21Win +37ATS Loss -6.5Over 44
11/4 PIT16-23Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Under 47
10/28 @CAR21-36Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 44.5
10/21 NO23-24Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 49.5
10/14 @TEN21-0Win +71Covered -2.5Under 43.5
10/7 @CLE9-12Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 44.5
9/30 @PIT26-14Win +150Covered +3Under 51
9/23 DEN27-14Win +43Covered -5.5Under 46
9/13 @CIN23-34Loss -100ATS Loss -1Over 43.5
9/9 BUF47-3Win +26Covered -7.5Over 38.5