Big Play WRs Give Edge to Chiefs Over Colts and Rams Over Cowboys

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Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Chiefs 32 and Colts 25, and Kansas City is winning 65% of the sims. The Chiefs are -222 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 69 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Kansas City won their lone matchup in recent seasons 30 to 14. The computer would set the spread at KC -7.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 6-5-0. As an underdog, the Colts are 4-4-0.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts56.525.824.634%35%14.0 (0 Wins)
Kansas City Chiefs-5.030.732.166%65%30.0 (1 Win)

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Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rams to win the game. The projected score is Rams 29 and Cowboys 23, with Los Angeles winning 64% of the time. The moneyline for the Rams is -323 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Cowboys based on how the moneyline is moving. Los Angeles won their lone matchup in recent seasons 35 to 30. The computer would set the spread at LAR -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The Rams have a record of 7-7-2 as a favorite. The Cowboys have a record of 6-3-0 as an underdog.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys48.520.822.727%36%30.0 (0 Wins)
Los Angeles Rams-7.027.729.473%64%35.0 (1 Win)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Patriots to win the game. The projected score is Patriots 26 and Chargers 21, and New England is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Patriots is -200 which translates to 67 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. New England won their lone matchup in recent seasons 21 to 13. The computer would set the spread at NE -5. With more action on the Chargers, oddsmakers have moved the line from +4.5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 9-7-0. As an underdog, the Chargers are 4-1-0.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers47.521.821.336%39%13.0 (0 Wins)
New England Patriots-4.025.726.164%61%21.0 (1 Win)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Saints over the Eagles. The projected score is Saints 32 and Eagles 23, with New Orleans winning 67% of the time. The moneyline for the Saints is -379 which translates to 79 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. New Orleans won their lone matchup in recent seasons 48 to 7. The projection based point spread is NO -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8. The Saints have a record of 7-6-0 as a favorite. The Eagles have a record of 2-2-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (NO won by 41) New Orleans covered the spread. The Saints were -7 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles51.521.822.723%33%7.0 (0 Wins)
New Orleans Saints-8.029.731.577%67%48.0 (1 Win)

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