Choosing Between Russell Wilson, Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers on DraftKings in Week 13

DAILY FANTASY VALUE (DRAFTKINGS & FANDUEL)

He is priced at $6.3K and at this price he is expected to have 23.4 points on DraftKings. With a projection of 21.9 he is worth -404 dollars under this price. He reached his expected point total of 23.4 DraftKings points 17 times (38%). He is 18-27 reaching his projected point total of 21.9. With a lower than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks that are projected for more points with the same or lower salary. Drew Brees (24.1 FP), Tom Brady (22.2 FP), Ben Roethlisberger (23.4 FP), Aaron Rodgers (22.2 FP), and Deshaun Watson (23.4 FP) are all better options. He is projected for 20.8 FanDuel points and based on his $7.7K price he is expected to put up just 19.6 points. He is worth +$471 more than his salary. He reached his expected point total of 19.6 FanDuel points 24 times (53%). He is 20-25 reaching his projected point total of 20.8. With a better than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. Andrew Luck (19.2 FP), Matt Ryan (16.8 FP), Tom Brady (20 FP), Aaron Rodgers (20.4 FP), and Mitchell Trubisky (16.6 FP) are all worse options.

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WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

We are projecting an above average week for Russell Wilson where he is projected to be the #5 quarterback, well over his rest of season ranking of #12. He is projected to beat market expectations where he is the #12 quarterback based on ownership. From Week 13 to 16, Wilson has 1 weeks that deviate from expectations which is typical of most players. Unfortunately for owners, he is not projected to have any really relatively great weeks, but is projected for one bad one.

WEEKFPRANKPROJECTION (Italic = Bad WK)
WK 13 to 16 Totals115#1295 COMP, 146 PASS, 1191 Yd, 10.4 Td, 3.8 Int, 23 RushYd, 0.31 Td
WK 13 SF24.8#518.8 COMP, 29 PASS, 238 Yd, 2.3 Td, 0.68 Int, 4.6 RushYd, 0.07 Td
WK 14 MIN20.8#1618.8 COMP, 30 PASS, 233 Yd, 1.84 Td, 0.94 Int, 4.7 RushYd, 0.06 Td
WK 15 @SF24.3#719.1 COMP, 28 PASS, 246 Yd, 2.2 Td, 0.64 Int, 4.6 RushYd, 0.07 Td
WK 16 KC22.0#1618.4 COMP, 29 PASS, 239 Yd, 1.89 Td, 0.85 Int, 4.6 RushYd, 0.05 Td

EXPERT RANKINGS (WEEK)

The Scout projections have a higher ranking than the market, and of the 3 experts, two have a higher rank and one has a lower rank. The expert consensus rank is #8. The experts rank him behind Jared Goff and ahead of Philip Rivers. The projections agree that Wilson should be ranked behind Goff.

RANKPROJECTIONDAVE RICHARDJAMEY EISENBERGHEATH CUMMINGS
Higher#5#8#5
Market #10------------------------------------------------------------
Lower#11

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REST OF SEASON FANTASY VALUE

The market (owners) expects him to be the #12 best fantasy quarterback and our projection model has the exact same ranking. He is owned in 99 percent of CBS leagues and are projected to average 23 FPs. Even though his projected rank matches his market based rank there are quarterbacks projected for more points with the same or lower market expectation. Dak Prescott (116 FP), for example, is a better option owners may want to target.

KEY STATSPASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDFP
Projected Average per Game 238.22.10.725.523.0
Actual Avg Since Last Season241.32.20.630.324.9

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PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2016 TO 2018)

With 11 games played this season Wilson is the #9 ranked QB. He is trending down based on lower per game fantasy ranking vs 2017. He is relatively weaker than stronger in more categories. The strengths are bolded below.

2016-2018FPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (43 Games)979898/1408, 63.8%10733802710764
QB Rank#3#28#8#5#45#3#13
Average Stats22.820.9/32.7, 63.8%2501.90.6250.1
QB Rank (Averages)#8#28#18#11#18#11#29
2018 & SeasonFPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (11 Games)259206/309, 66.7%25312552310
QB Rank#9#17#20#6#4#9#64
Average Stats23.618.7/28.1, 66.7%2302.30.5210
QB Rank (Averages)#11#17#30#6#3#12#1
2017 SeasonFPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (16 Games)412339/553, 61.3%398334115863
QB Rank#1#33#9#1#28#2#9
Average Stats25.721.2/34.6, 61.3%2492.10.736.60.2
QB Rank (Averages)#3#33#15#4#15#3#12
2016 SeasonFPCOMP%PASSYDPASSTDPASSINTRUSHYDRUSHTD
Stats (16 Games)308353/546, 64.7%421921112591
QB Rank#13#20#10#17#21#8#18
Average Stats19.322.1/34.1, 64.7%2641.30.716.20.1
QB Rank (Averages)#17#20#12#21#15#12#24