Cleveland Browns Have a 3.2% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Browns could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their odds (14/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 6.7%. Their simulation based probability is 3.2%. They have a a 3.2 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 7/1, 12.5%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 6.5 wins. Their 7 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 2-6 on the road and were expected to win 2.8. Their 62.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (46.4%). Anyone who backed the Browns in all of their games on the money line would be down -402 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +340 profit risking 110 to win 100 (10-6 ATS). They are profitable against the spread at home and on the road. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games22.4 - 24.57-9, -40210-6, +3407-8 53.3% Under
On Road23.8 - 27.02-6, -4025-3, +1704-4 50% Over
At Home21.1 - 22.05-3, +2365-3, +1703-4 57.1% Under
12/30 @BAL24-26Loss -100Covered +7Over 40.5
12/23 CIN26-18Win +22ATS Loss -10Push 44
12/15 @DEN17-16Win +107Covered +1.5Under 47
12/9 CAR26-20Win +95Covered +1Under 48
12/2 @HOU13-29Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 47.5
11/25 @CIN35-20Win +91Covered PKOver 46.5
11/11 ATL28-16Win +212Covered +5.5Under 49.5
11/4 KC21-37Loss -100ATS Loss +8Over 51.5
10/28 @PIT18-33Loss -100ATS Loss +8.5Over 47.5
10/21 @TB23-26Loss -100Covered +3.5Under 52.5
10/14 LAC14-38Loss -100ATS Loss -1Over 47
10/7 BAL12-9Win +150Covered +3Under 44.5
9/30 @OAK42-45Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Over 44.5
9/20 NYJ21-17Win +57Covered -3Under 41
9/16 @NO18-21Loss -100Covered +9.5Under 51
9/9 PIT21-21Loss -100Covered +3.5Over 41

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.4 (#20)4.5% (#13)6.2 (#13)266 (#13)7.4 (#15)118 (#14)4.6 (#11)1.5 (#22)
On the Road23.8 (#11)5.1% (#3)6.3 (#15)269 (#11)7.6 (#10)99 (#22)4.2 (#20)2.0 (#28)
At Home21.1 (#25)3.9% (#19)6.2 (#9)263 (#15)7.2 (#19)138 (#5)4.9 (#4)1.0 (#8)
Last 4 Games23.2 (#11)4.9% (#5)7.1 (#4)287 (#6)8.6 (#1)112 (#14)4.9 (#7)1.8 (#25)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.5 (#21)3.8% (#12)6.0 (#30)273 (#25)7.0 (#8)135 (#28)4.7 (#24)1.9 (#2)
Road Games27.0 (#24)3.5% (#5)5.9 (#30)277 (#26)6.7 (#5)141 (#28)4.7 (#24)1.9 (#2)
Home Games22.0 (#19)4.1% (#20)6.2 (#28)269 (#25)7.3 (#16)130 (#25)4.8 (#23)2.0 (#5)
Last 4 Games20.0 (#11)2.8% (#6)5.6 (#16)217 (#11)6.5 (#6)132 (#22)4.5 (#21)1.0 (#21)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games22.4 - 24.57-9, -40210-6, +3407-8 53.3% Under
On Road23.8 - 27.02-6, -4025-3, +1704-4 50% Over
At Home21.1 - 22.05-3, +2365-3, +1703-4 57.1% Under
12/30 @BAL24-26Loss -100Covered +7Over 40.5
12/23 CIN26-18Win +22ATS Loss -10Push 44
12/15 @DEN17-16Win +107Covered +1.5Under 47
12/9 CAR26-20Win +95Covered +1Under 48
12/2 @HOU13-29Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 47.5
11/25 @CIN35-20Win +91Covered PKOver 46.5
11/11 ATL28-16Win +212Covered +5.5Under 49.5
11/4 KC21-37Loss -100ATS Loss +8Over 51.5
10/28 @PIT18-33Loss -100ATS Loss +8.5Over 47.5
10/21 @TB23-26Loss -100Covered +3.5Under 52.5
10/14 LAC14-38Loss -100ATS Loss -1Over 47
10/7 BAL12-9Win +150Covered +3Under 44.5
9/30 @OAK42-45Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Over 44.5
9/20 NYJ21-17Win +57Covered -3Under 41
9/16 @NO18-21Loss -100Covered +9.5Under 51
9/9 PIT21-21Loss -100Covered +3.5Over 41