Cowboys and Eagles are Good NFC Champ Bets...Chiefs a Good Super Bowl Bet

Below are the latest NFL Futures for winning the Super Bowl. With the juice, the Kansas City Chiefs are the only good betting value at 9/2 which implies an 18.2% chance. They are winning the Super Bowl in 22% of simulations. The Chiefs are NOT a good betting value to win the AFC with a 39.1% chance at 7/5 (41.7%). In fact, the only AFC team that comes close to being a good conference champ bet are the LA Chargers who have a 19.4% chance of winning the AFC which is just shy of their 4/1 (20%) odds. In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are both fair to slight values to win the conference. Dallas should benefit from a very favorable 'home' crowd in Los Angeles. They are winning the NFC 12.5% of the time which is exactly what their 7/1 odds imply. The Eagles are playing great under Nick Foles and are winning the NFC in 13.8% of simulations… well above their 8/1 (11.1%) chances.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New Orleans Saints9/430.8%23.3%--
Kansas City Chiefs9/218.2%22.0%UP
New England Patriots5/116.7%15.5%DOWN
Los Angeles Rams9/218.2%14.9%--
Los Angeles Chargers8/111.1%10.0%UP
Philadelphia Eagles16/15.9%5.6%UP
Dallas Cowboys14/16.7%4.4%UP
Indianapolis Colts14/16.7%4.2%UP