Free Picks: Take Seahawks -3.0 on Monday Night, and Chiefs -3.0 on Thursday Night

Monday, December 10, 2018

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks

The odds favor the Seahawks, and the sims are solidly on the Seahawks as well. The projected score is Seahawks 25 and Vikings 20, and Seattle is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Seahawks is -164 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at SEA -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Vikings with the Vegas moving from +3.5 to +3. The Seahawks have a record of 3-1-1 as a favorite. The Vikings have a record of 1-3-1 as an underdog. The Vikings are 2-3-1 ATS on the road this season. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Vikings4621.520.240%38%--
Seattle Seahawks-3.024.525.160%61%--

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Thursday, December 13, 2018

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

The odds and our simulations favor the Chiefs over the Chargers, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Chiefs 29 and Chargers 25, and Kansas City is winning 57% of the sims. At -185 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied proability to win is 65 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Chiefs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record. In these games the Chiefs averaged 32 points per game and the Chargers 21. The computer would set the spread at KC -3.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers with the Vegas moving from +3.5 to +3. The Chiefs have a record of 5-3-0 as a favorite. The Chargers have a record of 2-1-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Chiefs have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Chargers. The average point spread in these games was Chargers -0.7 but the Chiefs won by an average of 11.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers5325.025.438%43%21.0 (0 Wins)
Kansas City Chiefs-3.028.028.962%57%32.4 (5 Wins)

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Saturday, December 15, 2018

Houston Texans vs New York Jets

The odds and our simulations favor the Texans over the Jets despite being on the road. The projected score is Texans 28 and Jets 22, with Houston winning 62% of the latest sims. The Texans are -254 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 72 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is HOU -5.5. More of the action seems to be on the Texans as the Vegas line has moved from +5.5 to 6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Texans are 4-5-0. As an underdog, the Jets are 3-6-0. The Texans are 3-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Jets are 2-4-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans41.523.827.770%62%--
New York Jets+6.017.722.130%38%--

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Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Broncos to win the game. The projected score is Broncos 26 and Browns 21, and Denver is winning 61% of simulations. At -167 on the moneyline, the Broncos implied proability to win is 63 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Browns since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is DEN -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Browns with the Vegas moving from +4 to +3. The Broncos have a record of 2-3-1 as a favorite. The Browns have a record of 5-4-0 as an underdog. The Browns are 3-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Broncos are 2-3-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Browns44.520.821.239%39%--
Denver Broncos-3.023.726.361%61%--

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Sunday, December 16, 2018

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Lions are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Lions 23 and Bills 20, and Detroit is winning 56% of simulations. The Bills are -140 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Bills to win. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is DET -2.5. As an underdog, the Lions are 4-4-0. The Lions are 3-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Bills are 2-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions38.518.022.843%56%--
Buffalo Bills-2.520.520.557%44%--

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Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Bears to win the game. The projected score is Bears 25 and Packers 20, and Chicago is winning 61% of the sims. At -250 on the moneyline, the Bears implied proability to win is 71 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Packers going 5-0. In these games, the Packers averaged 28 and the Bears 18 ppg. The projection based point spread is CHI -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears as the Vegas line has moved from -5 to -5.5. The Bears have a record of 7-3-0 as a favorite. The Packers have a record of 2-3-1 as an underdog. The Bears have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Bears are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Packers. The average point spread in these games was Packers -1.3 and they won by an average of 9.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers4519.820.031%39%27.6 (5 Wins)
Chicago Bears-5.525.224.969%61%18.0 (0 Wins)

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Oakland Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals

The odds favor the Bengals, and the sims are solidly on the Bengals as well. The projected score is Bengals 28 and Raiders 21, and Cincinnati is winning 63% of the sims. The Bengals are -161 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Raiders to win. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at CIN -6.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Raiders with the Vegas moving from +3.5 to +3. The Bengals have a record of 2-2-0 as a favorite. The Raiders have a record of 3-7-0 as an underdog. The Raiders are 2-5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Bengals are 2-5-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Raiders45.521.221.340%36%--
Cincinnati Bengals-3.024.327.660%63%--

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Ravens to win the game. The projected score is Ravens 33 and Buccaneers 19, with Baltimore winning 81% of the time. At -400 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied proability to win is 80 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at BAL -13.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Ravens as the Vegas line has moved from -7.5 to -8. The Ravens have a record of 4-6-0 as a favorite. The Buccaneers have a record of 4-3-1 as an underdog. The Buccaneers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road this season. The Ravens are 3-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Buccaneers46.519.219.223%18%--
Baltimore Ravens-8.027.332.877%81%--

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Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Falcons to win the game. The projected score is Falcons 28 and Cardinals 18, and Atlanta is winning 73% of the sims. The moneyline for the Falcons is -425 which translates to 81 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Atlanta won their lone matchup in recent seasons 38 to 19. The projection based point spread is ATL -10. With more action on the Cardinals, oddsmakers have moved the line from +9 to +8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Falcons are 2-6-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 6-3-1.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Cardinals4417.817.623%26%19.0 (0 Wins)
Atlanta Falcons-8.526.227.677%73%38.0 (1 Win)

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Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts

The odds favor the Colts, and the sims are solidly on the Colts as well. The projected score is Colts 27 and Cowboys 24, and Indianapolis is winning 55% of the sims. The Colts are -149 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is IND -2. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Colts are 3-2-1. As an underdog, the Cowboys are 5-2-0. The Cowboys are 3-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Colts are 2-3-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys4722.024.542%45%--
Indianapolis Colts-3.025.026.658%55%--

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Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants

The odds favor the Giants, and the sims are solidly on the Giants as well. The projected score is Giants 23 and Titans 21, and New York is winning 54% of simulations. The Giants are -149 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NYG -2.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -2.5. In their one recent game as a favorite, the Giants pushed. The Giants pushed against the spread in their one game as a favorite in recent seasons. The Titans have a record of 6-3-0 as an underdog. The Titans are 3-4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Giants are 1-4-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans42.520.021.142%45%--
New York Giants-2.522.523.458%54%--

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Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Vikings 30 and Dolphins 20, with Minnesota winning 72% of the time. The moneyline for the Vikings is -400 which translates to 80 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at MIN -10. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8. The Vikings have a record of 4-2-1 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 3-5-0 as an underdog. The Dolphins are 2-4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Vikings are 3-2-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Dolphins4418.019.824%28%--
Minnesota Vikings-8.026.029.876%72%--

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Washington Redskins vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Jaguars over the Redskins. The projected score is Jaguars 23 and Redskins 15, with Jacksonville winning 70% of the time. At -323 on the moneyline, the Jaguars implied proability to win is 76 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at JAC -8.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Redskins with the Vegas moving from +7.5 to +7. The Jaguars have a record of 2-4-0 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 6-3-0 as an underdog. The Redskins are 3-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Jaguars are 3-2-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins3614.514.627%29%--
Jacksonville Jaguars-7.021.523.173%70%--

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Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Seahawks 28 and 49ers 21, with Seattle being given a 66% chance of winning. The Seahawks are -250 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Seahawks going 5-0. In these games, the Seahawks averaged 28 and the 49ers 16 ppg. The projection based point spread is SEA -7. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening SF +5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Seahawks are 3-1-1. As an underdog, the 49ers are 3-5-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Seahawks are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the 49ers. The average point spread in these games was Seahawks -1.9 and they won by an average of 12.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks44.525.028.268%66%28.2 (5 Wins)
San Francisco 49ers+5.519.521.132%34%15.8 (0 Wins)

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New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

With unknown variables yet to be determined, the simulations have this as a coin flip and Vegas has not posted lines yet. The projected score is Patriots 28 and Steelers 27, with New England being given a 50% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Patriots going 3-0. In these games, the Patriots averaged 30 and the Steelers 19 ppg. The computer would set this game as a pick 'em. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Steelers are 3-5-1. The average spread in these 3 games was a pick 'em (zero points) and the Patriots won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New England Patriots----28.1--50%30.0 (3 Wins)
Pittsburgh Steelers----28.0--49%19.0 (0 Wins)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Rams 34 and Eagles 24, and Los Angeles is winning 74% of simulations. The Rams are -435 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 81 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Philadelphia won their lone matchup in recent seasons 43 to 35. The computer would set the spread at LAR -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Rams as the Vegas line has moved from -8.5 to -9. The Rams have a record of 5-5-2 as a favorite. In their one recent game as an underdog, the Eagles did not cover the spread. The Eagles did not cover in their one game as a underdog in recent seasons.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles53.522.223.922%26%43.0 (1 Win)
Los Angeles Rams-9.031.333.978%74%35.0 (0 Wins)

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Monday, December 17, 2018

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Saints to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Saints 34 and Panthers 25, with New Orleans winning 68% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Saints is -263 which translates to 72 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Saints have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Saints averaged 31 and the Panthers 24 ppg. The projection based point spread is NO -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CAR +6.5. The Saints have a record of 6-3-0 as a favorite. The Panthers have a record of 2-2-0 as an underdog. The average spread in these 5 games was a pick 'em (zero points) and the Saints won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Saints5229.233.870%68%31.4 (4 Wins)
Carolina Panthers+6.522.825.030%32%24.2 (1 Win)

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