Getting Older is Taking Its Toll on Jimmy Graham

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Jimmy Graham had a good fantasy season and was a 'second tier' fantasy star. He was the #309 ranked fantasy player this season and the #15 TE. Even though he missed a few games, he played enough to make his overall fantasy rank better than what it is based on average fantasy points where he is the #20 TE. He peaked early in the season. He averaged 6.1 FPs in his first 5 games and 3.1 FP in his final 6 games. His standard deviation divided by his average is 0.73 which is close to the league ratio. Our projected ceiling for Graham when he 'goes off' is 12 fantasy points (his average is 4.7FPs).

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DOWNWARD STATISTICAL CAREER TREND

It looks like getting older is hurting fantasy production. His average Fantasy points have dropped by 41% over this time frame.

SEASON TREND201820172016
Fantasy Points76115119
FP Average4.77.27.9
Regular Season GP161615

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

He was the #14 ranked fantasy TE based on total fantasy points. He averaged 4.7 FP per game (#21 ranked based on average). He is trending down based on lower per game fantasy ranking from 2017 to 2018. He is relatively stronger (stats bolded below) than weaker in more categories.

2017-2018FPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (32 Games)190112115612186000
TE Rank#8#9#10#4#6#156#156#1
Average Stats5.93.536.10.385.8000
TE Rank (Averages)#12#16#17#10#11#1#1#1
2018 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (16 Games)7655636291000
TE Rank#14#9#9#31#6#122#122#1
Average Stats4.73.439.80.125.7000
TE Rank (Averages)#21#16#16#56#10#1#1#1
2017 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (16 Games)114575201095000
TE Rank#4#9#17#1#7#119#119#1
Average Stats7.13.632.50.625.9000
TE Rank (Averages)#5#13#20#1#7#1#1#1

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WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 4.7 fantasy points per week and had 9 weeks where he came up short (below 20% of average) and had 5 weeks where he was +20% above average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL4.7 FP per Week59
Week 10.8 (1 games)-3.9
Week 29.5 (1 games)+4.8
Week 34.5 (1 games)
Week 48.1 (1 games)+3.4
Week 57.6 (1 games)+2.9
Week 610.4 (1 games)+5.7
Week 82.1 (1 games)-2.6
Week 911.5 (1 games)+6.8
Week 101.4 (1 games)-3.3
Week 111.3 (1 games)-3.4
Week 123.4 (1 games)-1.3
Week 135 (1 games)
Week 141.3 (1 games)-3.4
Week 153.2 (1 games)-1.5
Week 163.4 (1 games)-1.3
Week 172.1 (1 games)-2.6

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 7 points and on DraftKings it was 9 per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 2.3 and on FanDuel it was 1.8 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 15.5 and 12.9 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All7 ($6K)6 G, 7 B9 ($4.3K)6 G, 7 B
12/30 DET3.6--5.1--
12/23 @NYJ4.9 ($5.4K)-2.16.4 ($3.7K)-2.6
12/16 @CHI4.7 ($5.5K)-2.36.2 ($3.8K)-2.8
12/9 ATL2.3 ($5.6K)-4.73.3 ($4.4K)-5.7
12/2 ARI9 ($5.8K)+213 ($4K)+4
11/25 @MIN4.4 ($6.3K)-2.65.4 ($2.5K)-3.6
11/15 @SEA1.8 ($6.3K)-5.22.3 ($4K)-6.7
11/11 MIA1.9 ($6.3K)-5.12.4 ($4.6K)-6.6
11/4 @NE13.5 ($6.4K)+6.515.5 ($4.7K)+6.5
10/28 @LAR2.6 ($6.4K)-4.43.1 ($4.7K)-5.9
10/15 SF12.9 ($6.1K)+5.918.4 ($4.7K)+9.4
10/7 @DET10.6 ($6.1K)+3.613.6 ($4.7K)+4.6
9/30 BUF9.6 ($6K)+2.611.1 ($4.5K)+2.1
9/23 @WAS7 ($6.2K)--9.5 ($4.9K)--
9/16 MIN12.5 ($6K)+5.515.5 ($4.8K)+6.5
9/9 CHI1.8--2.8--