Giants Projected Win Total is Rising... Up To 6

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Giants were projected to win 6.1 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 9/14 their projected win total was up to 6.4 before dropping to 3.6 on 11/9. Their current projected win total is 6.4. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were projected for 5.1 wins. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NFC at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 43% #10 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #8 Toughest

Giants' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%NFC ChampSuper Bowl Champ
Dec 106.40.4%0%0%
Nov 93.60.1%0%0%
Difference+2.8+0.3%----

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis. At 5-8 the Giants are behind their money line projected win total of 5.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins and one bad loss. They have come up especially short at home. Their 2-4 home record is -12% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 3-1 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 1.9 wins. In simulations where the Giants played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 43.6% of the time (#23 in the league). They have moved up from #31 in the league back on 10/16.

They are an average team in points per game. Offensively, they are the #14 ranked team in yards per play. They are the #20 ranked team in offensive TD rate [(PassTD + RushTD) / (Pass Att + Rush Att)]. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better defensive TD rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 13 Games23.6 (#16)3.9% (#20)6.6 (#14)274 (#11)7.7 (#13)106 (#22)4.8 (#4)1.1 (#6)
On the Road25.7 (#7)4.5% (#9)6.9 (#6)291 (#7)8.4 (#5)101 (#21)4.6 (#13)0.9 (#5)
At Home21.2 (#24)3.1% (#28)6.2 (#23)254 (#18)6.9 (#25)111 (#17)5.2 (#2)1.3 (#20)
Last 4 Games32.5 (#3)5.2% (#7)7.0 (#9)236 (#17)8.0 (#9)164 (#5)5.9 (#2)0.8 (#5)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 13 Games25.5 (#23)3.8% (#12)6.1 (#18)261 (#18)7.6 (#16)122 (#22)4.4 (#14)1.5 (#15)
Road (7 Games)23.1 (#15)3.4% (#5)6.3 (#15)269 (#18)8.0 (#22)102 (#7)4.1 (#10)1.4 (#14)
Home (6 Games)28.2 (#28)4.3% (#19)6.0 (#23)252 (#15)7.1 (#13)144 (#30)4.7 (#17)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games25.8 (#20)4.4% (#18)6.5 (#25)280 (#27)8.3 (#27)120 (#15)4.2 (#14)2.5 (#2)

NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: RAIN

The Giants next 3 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. They have a 9.5 percent chance of winning three over this stretch.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

DEC 16
CLOSE GAME
54% TEN
--
DEC 23
LIKELY LOSS
38% @IND
642 miles
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
45% DAL
--

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FANTASY TEAM LEADERS

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (QB, RB, WR, TE, K). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Saquon Barkley18.6100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Evan Engram6.471% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #15)
Aldrick Rosas8.219% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #24)
Eli Manning18.844% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #22)
Odell Beckham11.6100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #18)
Sterling Shepard7.484% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #34)