Green Bay Packers Finish the Season 6-9-1

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 9.1 wins. Their 6 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 62.5% home win percentage was as expected (72.4%). They won 12.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (41.6%). Below is a recap of all 16 regular games. Anyone who backed the Packers in all of their games on the money line would be down -154 units. Against the spread, they have lost -390 units risking 110 to win 100 (6-9 ATS).

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and a below average defensive TD rate.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games23.5 - 25.06-10, -1546-9, -3908-8 50% Over
On Road23.2 - 29.41-7, -6382-5, -3504-4 50% Over
At Home23.8 - 20.65-3, -1544-4, -404-4 50% Over
12/30 DET0-31Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 44.5
12/23 @NYJ44-38Win +62Covered -3Over 47
12/16 @CHI17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +5.5Under 46.5
12/9 ATL34-20Win +51Covered -4Over 50.5
12/2 ARI17-20Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Under 41
11/25 @MIN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 48
11/15 @SEA24-27Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 49
11/11 MIA31-12Win +13Covered -12.5Under 48.5
11/4 @NE17-31Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 56.5
10/28 @LAR27-29Loss -100Covered +7.5Under 57
10/15 SF33-30Win +22ATS Loss -9Over 46
10/7 @DET23-31Loss -100ATS Loss +1Over 50
9/30 BUF22-0Win +27Covered -9Under 44
9/23 @WAS17-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 46
9/16 MIN29-29Loss -100Covered +2Over 45
9/9 CHI24-23Win +33ATS Loss -6.5Over 45.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 15 Games25.1 (#12)4.2% (#15)6.6 (#5)298 (#6)7.5 (#16)108 (#20)5.1 (#2)0.9 (#2)
On the Road23.2 (#12)4.4% (#11)6.8 (#4)312 (#4)7.7 (#8)96 (#26)5.0 (#7)1.1 (#10)
At Home27.1 (#11)4.1% (#17)6.4 (#8)282 (#11)7.2 (#21)122 (#10)5.1 (#2)0.7 (#4)
Last 4 Games28.0 (#4)4.1% (#14)6.0 (#5)286 (#7)6.4 (#23)113 (#17)5.2 (#6)0.5 (#3)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 15 Games24.6 (#22)4.5% (#24)6.2 (#16)253 (#13)7.7 (#22)119 (#20)4.4 (#14)1.0 (#26)
Road Games29.4 (#26)5.7% (#30)6.3 (#23)273 (#23)8.7 (#31)116 (#17)3.8 (#4)0.4 (#32)
Home (7 Games)19.1 (#9)3.2% (#5)6.0 (#11)231 (#9)6.6 (#6)123 (#22)5.1 (#28)1.7 (#10)
Last 4 Games25.5 (#26)5.2% (#31)6.1 (#19)247 (#25)7.5 (#24)108 (#14)4.2 (#14)0.8 (#24)

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Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games23.5 - 25.06-10, -1546-9, -3908-8 50% Over
On Road23.2 - 29.41-7, -6382-5, -3504-4 50% Over
At Home23.8 - 20.65-3, -1544-4, -404-4 50% Over
12/30 DET0-31Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 44.5
12/23 @NYJ44-38Win +62Covered -3Over 47
12/16 @CHI17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +5.5Under 46.5
12/9 ATL34-20Win +51Covered -4Over 50.5
12/2 ARI17-20Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Under 41
11/25 @MIN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 48
11/15 @SEA24-27Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 49
11/11 MIA31-12Win +13Covered -12.5Under 48.5
11/4 @NE17-31Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 56.5
10/28 @LAR27-29Loss -100Covered +7.5Under 57
10/15 SF33-30Win +22ATS Loss -9Over 46
10/7 @DET23-31Loss -100ATS Loss +1Over 50
9/30 BUF22-0Win +27Covered -9Under 44
9/23 @WAS17-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 46
9/16 MIN29-29Loss -100Covered +2Over 45
9/9 CHI24-23Win +33ATS Loss -6.5Over 45.5