As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.
DAILY FANTASY VALUE (DRAFTKINGS & FANDUEL)
He is one of the very best DraftKings values at running back. He is priced at $3.7K and at this price he is expected to have 10.3 points on DraftKings. With a projection of 14.1 he is worth +$1365 over this price. He hit this expected level of performance in 17% of games. He is 0-12 reaching his projected point total of 14.1. With a better than expected projection rank there are other running backs you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. LeGarrette Blount (6.7 FP), LeSean McCoy (13 FP), Ty Montgomery (5.2 FP), Jordan Howard (11.6 FP), and Latavius Murray (7.3 FP) are all worse options. He is a great value at the running back position on FanDuel. He is projected for 12.7 FanDuel points and based on his $4.6K price he is expected to put up just 9.8 points. He is worth +$1361 more than his salary. He is 2-10 reaching their expected salary based point total (17%). He is 0-12 reaching his projected point total of 12.7. With a better than expected projection rank there are other running backs you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. LeGarrette Blount (6.4 FP), Kyle Juszczyk (4.2 FP), Mark Ingram (12.2 FP), Isaiah Crowell (10.4 FP), and LeSean McCoy (11.3 FP) are all worse options.
WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE
This is projected to be an above average week for Jaylen Samuels who is projected to be the #16 running back vs a season projection of #45. He is projected to beat market expectations where he is the #35 running back based on ownership. Most fantasy players have roughly 30% of their weekly projections deviate significantly from their season average, but he is projected to be more volatile than most. Unfortunately for owners, he is only projected to have one really exceptionally great week, but is projected for 2 bad ones.
|WEEK||FP||RANK||PROJECTION (Bold = Good, Italic = Bad)|
|WK 14 to 16 Totals||26.5||#45||26 Rush, 106 Yd, 1.06 Td, 5.9 Rec, 54 Yd, 0.76 Td, 0.27 Fl|
|WK 14 @OAK||11.5||#16||10.8 Rush, 44 Yd, 0.5 Td, 2.4 Rec, 23 Yd, 0.33 Td, 0.07 Fl|
|WK 15 NE||6.0||#48||6.6 Rush, 29 Yd, 0.23 Td, 1.17 Rec, 10.2 Yd, 0.14 Td, 0.06 Fl|
|WK 16 @NO||4.1||#57||4.3 Rush, 15.5 Yd, 0.14 Td, 1.15 Rec, 10.6 Yd, 0.12 Td, 0.09 Fl|
EXPERT RANKINGS (WEEK)
The Scout projections have a higher ranking than the market, and the 3 experts rank him lower than the market. The expert consensus rank is #15. The experts rank him behind Kenyan Drake and ahead of Josh Adams. But the projections rank Samuels above Drake. He has the same expert consensus ranking in PPR leagues.
|RANK||PROJECTION||DAVE RICHARD||JAMEY EISENBERG||HEATH CUMMINGS|
|PPR RANK||PROJECTION||DAVE RICHARD||JAMEY EISENBERG||HEATH CUMMINGS|
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REST OF SEASON FANTASY VALUE
He is expected to be a valuable fantasy asset, but our projections say he is overrated. He is owned in 84 percent of CBS leagues and this translates to an expected running back rank of #35. He is projected to average 6.6 FPs which translates to a position rank of #45. With a lower than expected projection rank there are other running backs that are projected for more points that may be available via trade or off the waiver wire. Frank Gore (35 FP), Chris Thompson (29 FP), Duke Johnson (30 FP), Derrick Henry (30 FP), and Elijah McGuire (30 FP) are all better options than Jaylen Samuels. Jaylen Samuels is not as good an option in PPR leagues where he is the #47 projected running back with 6.6 FP per week average.
|Projected Average per Game||6.5||26.4||13.5||0.5||6.6|
|Actual Avg Since Last Season||1.0||2.6||4.5||0.2||1.7|
PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2018)
Jaylen Samuels has only played in 5 games this season.
|2018 & Season||FP||RUSH||RUSHYD||RUSHTD||REC||RECYD||RECTD||FUML|
|Stats (5 Games)||20||12||31||0||7||54||2||0|
|RB Rank (Averages)||#72||#89||#97||#1||#57||#63||#5||#1|