SCOUT ANALYST TAKE
Despite signing a 5-year, $137,500,000 contract with the San Francisco 49ers before the 2018 season, Garoppolo has only started 10 games in his 5 years in the NFL. Garoppolo’s 2018 season was limited to only three games due to a torn ACL. SportsLine projects Garoppolo, who has thrown for a total of 2,968 yards with a 17/8 touchdown-to-interception, to finish 2019-20 with 4,416 yards and a 27/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Outside of George Kittle, the 49ers didn’t have another receiver break 500 yards. The 49ers went out and addressed their need at WR by selecting South Carolina WR Deebo Samuel in Rd. 2 and then Baylor WR/TE Jalen Hurd in Rd. 3. Hurd and Samuel join Marquise Goodwin, who should be fully healthy after missing a good chunk of last season, and second-year potential breakout Dante Pettis out wide to form a solid yet unspectacular WR core. I could see Garoppolo having a breakout season but 4,416 yards (276 Y/G) seems a bit too high to me. While Garoppolo averaged 308 Y/G in the five games he started in 2017, he averaged 239.3 Y/G in his three starts last season. I see Garoppolo averaging around 250 yards per game and totaling around 4,000 yards coming back from a significant injury. With the additions of Nick Bosa, Kwon Alexander, and Dee Ford on Defense, Garoppolo might not have to put up crazy numbers. The 27/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio seems about right to me. I think Garoppolo’s upside is around the 15th best QB this season and will end up between the 15th to 20th ranked Fantasy QB next season.
DRAFT ADVICE AND POSITION RANK
Draft Jimmy Garoppolo as a fantasy bench player who could make an occasional spot start in 2019. His 322 projected fantasy points puts him at #18 behind Dak Prescott and ahead of Josh Allen. His projected per game average is 20.2 fantasy points. He is slightly underrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 57%, he is the #20 most highly owned quarterback. In 3 games last season he was the #34 ranked quarterback.
|REST OF SEASON QB RANK||PROJECTION||FANTASY STATS SINCE 2018|
|#16 Kyler Murray (71% OWN)||328 FP, 20.5 per game||1.04 per game (#155)|
|#17 Dak Prescott (85% OWN)||326 FP, 20.4 per game||328 FP, 16 gp, 20.5 per game (#19)|
|#18 Jimmy Garoppolo (57% OWN)||322 FP, 20.2 per game||56 FP, 3 gp, 18.7 per game (#22)|
|#19 Josh Allen (53% OWN)||318 FP, 19.9 per game||226 FP, 12 gp, 18.8 per game (#21)|
|#20 Kirk Cousins (84% OWN)||318 FP, 19.9 per game||336 FP, 16 gp, 21 per game (#17)|
FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS
The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Below the projection are actual stats from last season.
|-- Per Game (16 Proj)||20.2||273||1.68||1.15||6.7||0.07|
|Week 1 @TB||22.3||300||1.80||1.00||6.8||0.08|
|Week 2 @CIN||21.7||288||1.80||1.10||6.8||0.08|
|-- Per Game (3 GP)||18.7||239||1.67||1.00||11.0||0.00|