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The Chiefs are favored to win by 3 points. They are -167 to win based on the money line which carries a 'juice adjusted' implied probability of 59.8%. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 55.5 points. If you extrapolate the spread and total lines you get a Vegas expected score of Chiefs 29.2 and Patriots 26.2. The Sportsline game simulations favor the Chiefs.
ADVANCING IN EACH ROUND
They have 32.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The following is the percentage of simulations the Chiefs win against the rest of the remaining playoff teams.
- Favored vs the Saints by 58.3%
- Favored vs the Rams by 61%
They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which makes sense given their strong offensive TD per play rate. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.
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|Season Recap||PPG-PA||Money Line||ATS Record||O/U Record|
|All Games||35.3 - 26.3||12-4, +121||9-6, +240||10-6 62.5% Over|
|On Road||38.2 - 34.6||5-3, +111||5-2, +280||7-1 87.5% Over|
|At Home||32.4 - 18.0||7-1, +112||4-4, -40||3-5 62.5% Under|
|12/30 OAK||35-3||Win +10||Covered -14.5||Under 52.5|
|12/23 @SEA||31-38||Loss -100||ATS Loss PK||Over 56|
|12/13 LAC||28-29||Loss -100||ATS Loss -3.5||Over 54.5|
|12/9 BAL||27-24||Win +33||ATS Loss -6.5||Over 49|
|12/2 @OAK||40-33||Win +10||ATS Loss -14||Over 53.5|
|11/19 @LAR||51-54||Loss -100||ATS Push +3||Over 63.5|
|11/11 ARI||26-14||Win +6||ATS Loss -16||Under 49.5|
|11/4 @CLE||37-21||Win +23||Covered -8||Over 51.5|
|10/28 DEN||30-23||Win +22||ATS Loss -8.5||Under 53.5|
|10/21 CIN||45-10||Win +36||Covered -6||Under 56.5|
|10/14 @NE||40-43||Loss -100||Covered +3.5||Over 59.5|
|10/7 JAC||30-14||Win +67||Covered -3||Under 48|
|10/1 @DEN||27-23||Win +43||Covered -3.5||Under 53.5|
|9/23 SF||38-27||Win +38||Covered -6||Over 53.5|
|9/16 @PIT||42-37||Win +170||Covered +4.5||Over 52.5|
|9/9 @LAC||38-28||Win +165||Covered +3.5||Over 48|