Los Angeles Chargers Have a 10% Chance of Winning the Championship

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The Chargers are +4 point underdogs. They are +163 to win based on the money line which carries a 'juice adjusted' implied probability of 36.3%. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 47.5 points. If you extrapolate the spread and total lines you get a Vegas expected score of Chargers 21.8 and Patriots 25.8. The Sportsline game simulations favor the Patriots.


Their chances of then winning the AFC is 19.4%. They have 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

The following is the percentage of simulations the Chargers win against the rest of the remaining playoff teams.

  • Underdog vs the Saints winning 41%
  • Underdog vs the Chiefs winning 40.6%
  • Favored vs the Rams by 52.6%
  • Favored vs the Eagles by 51.8%
  • Favored vs the Cowboys by 59.5%
  • Favored vs the Colts by 67.2%

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which makes sense given their strong offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

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Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games26.8 - 20.612-4, -1559-7, +1308-8 50% Over
On Road27.8 - 19.97-1, +4777-1, +5905-3 62.5% Over
At Home25.8 - 21.25-3, -1872-6, -4603-5 62.5% Under
12/30 @DEN23-9Win +32Covered -6.5Under 43.5
12/22 BAL10-22Loss -100ATS Loss -4Under 42.5
12/13 @KC29-28Win +170Covered +3.5Over 54.5
12/9 CIN26-21Win +7ATS Loss -17Under 48.5
12/2 @PIT33-30Win +145Covered +3Over 53
11/25 ARI45-10Win +10Covered -14Over 43.5
11/18 DEN22-23Loss -100ATS Loss -7Under 47
11/11 @OAK20-6Win +19Covered -10Under 50.5
11/4 @SEA25-17Win +91Covered PKUnder 48.5
10/21 TEN20-19Win +33ATS Loss -6.5Under 46
10/14 @CLE38-14Win +91Covered +1Over 47
10/7 OAK26-10Win +43Covered -5.5Under 51.5
9/30 SF29-27Win +20ATS Loss -10Over 46.5
9/23 @LAR23-35Loss -100ATS Loss +7Over 49
9/16 @BUF31-20Win +29Covered -7.5Over 41.5
9/9 KC28-38Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 48