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The Chargers are +4 point underdogs. They are +163 to win based on the money line which carries a 'juice adjusted' implied probability of 36.3%. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 47.5 points. If you extrapolate the spread and total lines you get a Vegas expected score of Chargers 21.8 and Patriots 25.8. The Sportsline game simulations favor the Patriots.
ADVANCING IN EACH ROUND
Their chances of then winning the AFC is 19.4%. They have 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The following is the percentage of simulations the Chargers win against the rest of the remaining playoff teams.
- Underdog vs the Saints winning 41%
- Underdog vs the Chiefs winning 40.6%
- Favored vs the Rams by 52.6%
- Favored vs the Eagles by 51.8%
- Favored vs the Cowboys by 59.5%
- Favored vs the Colts by 67.2%
They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which makes sense given their strong offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.
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|Season Recap||PPG-PA||Money Line||ATS Record||O/U Record|
|All Games||26.8 - 20.6||12-4, -155||9-7, +130||8-8 50% Over|
|On Road||27.8 - 19.9||7-1, +477||7-1, +590||5-3 62.5% Over|
|At Home||25.8 - 21.2||5-3, -187||2-6, -460||3-5 62.5% Under|
|12/30 @DEN||23-9||Win +32||Covered -6.5||Under 43.5|
|12/22 BAL||10-22||Loss -100||ATS Loss -4||Under 42.5|
|12/13 @KC||29-28||Win +170||Covered +3.5||Over 54.5|
|12/9 CIN||26-21||Win +7||ATS Loss -17||Under 48.5|
|12/2 @PIT||33-30||Win +145||Covered +3||Over 53|
|11/25 ARI||45-10||Win +10||Covered -14||Over 43.5|
|11/18 DEN||22-23||Loss -100||ATS Loss -7||Under 47|
|11/11 @OAK||20-6||Win +19||Covered -10||Under 50.5|
|11/4 @SEA||25-17||Win +91||Covered PK||Under 48.5|
|10/21 TEN||20-19||Win +33||ATS Loss -6.5||Under 46|
|10/14 @CLE||38-14||Win +91||Covered +1||Over 47|
|10/7 OAK||26-10||Win +43||Covered -5.5||Under 51.5|
|9/30 SF||29-27||Win +20||ATS Loss -10||Over 46.5|
|9/23 @LAR||23-35||Loss -100||ATS Loss +7||Over 49|
|9/16 @BUF||31-20||Win +29||Covered -7.5||Over 41.5|
|9/9 KC||28-38||Loss -100||ATS Loss -3.5||Over 48|