Los Angeles Rams Have a 13.6% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Rams may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 8/1, 11.1%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 13.6% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 27.6% chance at 4/1, 20%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went better than expected. They won 13 games vs an expected win total of 11.9. They won 75% on the road which was as expected (71.6%). They won 7 at home and were expected to win 6.1. Anyone who backed the Rams in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +110 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -70 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-7 ATS). Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games32.9 - 24.013-3, +1107-7, -708-8 50% Over
On Road28.8 - 19.96-2, -474-4, -402-6 75% Under
At Home37.1 - 28.17-1, +973-3, -306-2 75% Over
12/30 SF48-32Win +20Covered -10.5Over 49.5
12/23 @ARI31-9Win +13Covered -14Under 43
12/16 PHI23-30Loss -100ATS Loss -13Over 52
12/9 @CHI6-15Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 51
12/2 @DET30-16Win +19Covered -10Under 54
11/19 KC54-51Win +56ATS Push -3Over 63.5
11/11 SEA36-31Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Over 51
11/4 @NO35-45Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 57.5
10/28 GB29-27Win +29ATS Loss -7.5Under 57
10/21 @SF39-10Win +23Covered -8.5Under 51.5
10/14 @DEN23-20Win +31ATS Loss -7Under 50
10/7 @SEA33-31Win +29ATS Loss -7.5Over 50.5
9/27 MIN38-31Win +29ATS Push -7Over 49
9/23 LAC35-23Win +32Covered -7Over 49
9/16 ARI34-0Win +11Covered -12Under 43.5
9/10 @OAK33-13Win +38Covered -6Under 47.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games32.9 (#2)5.4% (#3)6.8 (#2)296 (#5)8.3 (#4)139 (#3)4.9 (#3)1.2 (#11)
On the Road28.8 (#3)4.7% (#6)6.6 (#6)245 (#16)7.6 (#11)159 (#1)5.5 (#2)1.4 (#13)
At Home37.1 (#1)6.0% (#3)7.0 (#1)346 (#1)8.9 (#2)120 (#11)4.2 (#20)1.0 (#8)
Last 4 Games27.0 (#5)4.1% (#15)5.7 (#11)241 (#15)6.3 (#26)140 (#6)4.9 (#8)2.0 (#30)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.0 (#20)4.7% (#26)6.6 (#20)257 (#19)7.7 (#24)122 (#23)5.1 (#32)1.9 (#3)
Road Games19.9 (#6)3.6% (#10)6.1 (#10)234 (#5)7.2 (#12)124 (#22)4.8 (#25)1.8 (#5)
Home Games28.1 (#29)5.8% (#32)7.1 (#29)279 (#28)8.2 (#29)120 (#21)5.4 (#32)2.0 (#5)
Last 4 Games21.5 (#18)3.9% (#17)6.0 (#15)211 (#8)6.8 (#10)134 (#24)5.1 (#27)2.0 (#2)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games32.9 - 24.013-3, +1107-7, -708-8 50% Over
On Road28.8 - 19.96-2, -474-4, -402-6 75% Under
At Home37.1 - 28.17-1, +973-3, -306-2 75% Over
12/30 SF48-32Win +20Covered -10.5Over 49.5
12/23 @ARI31-9Win +13Covered -14Under 43
12/16 PHI23-30Loss -100ATS Loss -13Over 52
12/9 @CHI6-15Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 51
12/2 @DET30-16Win +19Covered -10Under 54
11/19 KC54-51Win +56ATS Push -3Over 63.5
11/11 SEA36-31Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Over 51
11/4 @NO35-45Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 57.5
10/28 GB29-27Win +29ATS Loss -7.5Under 57
10/21 @SF39-10Win +23Covered -8.5Under 51.5
10/14 @DEN23-20Win +31ATS Loss -7Under 50
10/7 @SEA33-31Win +29ATS Loss -7.5Over 50.5
9/27 MIN38-31Win +29ATS Push -7Over 49
9/23 LAC35-23Win +32Covered -7Over 49
9/16 ARI34-0Win +11Covered -12Under 43.5
9/10 @OAK33-13Win +38Covered -6Under 47.5