Minnesota Vikings Have a 1.2% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Vikings 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. Their odds (25/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 3.8%. Their simulation based probability is 1.2%. Their odds (12/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 7.7%. Their simulation based probability is 3.3%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 9.3 wins. Their 8 actual wins was below expectation. They went 3-5 on the road and were expected to win 3.7. They won 5 at home and were expected to win 5.6. Anyone who backed the Vikings in all of their games on the money line would be down -122 units. Against the spread, they have lost -70 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-7 ATS). The Vikings are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are an above average scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games22.5 - 21.38-8, -1227-7, -706-10 62.5% Under
On Road23.0 - 23.03-5, -2533-4, -1404-4 50% Over
At Home22.0 - 19.65-3, -1224-3, +702-6 75% Under
12/30 CHI10-24Loss -100ATS Loss -6Under 40.5
12/23 @DET27-9Win +33Covered -6.5Under 42.5
12/16 MIA41-17Win +26Covered -7.5Over 45
12/10 @SEA7-21Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 45.5
12/2 @NE10-24Loss -100ATS Loss +6Under 50
11/25 GB24-17Win +53Covered -3.5Under 48
11/18 @CHI20-25Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Over 43.5
11/4 DET24-9Win +43Covered -4.5Under 47
10/28 NO20-30Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @NYJ37-17Win +56Covered -3.5Over 45
10/14 ARI27-17Win +20ATS Push -10Over 43.5
10/7 @PHI23-21Win +158Covered +3.5Under 48.5
9/27 @LAR31-38Loss -100ATS Push +7Over 49
9/23 BUF6-27Loss -100ATS Loss -16.5Under 41
9/16 @GB29-29Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 45
9/9 SF24-16Win +36Covered -6Under 46.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.5 (#19)4.0% (#16)6.0 (#21)269 (#12)7.1 (#23)93 (#30)4.2 (#25)1.2 (#16)
On the Road23.0 (#15)3.9% (#18)6.0 (#19)289 (#7)7.1 (#18)73 (#32)3.7 (#31)1.1 (#9)
At Home22.0 (#23)4.2% (#16)6.0 (#23)248 (#20)7.1 (#20)114 (#14)4.6 (#10)1.4 (#19)
Last 4 Games21.2 (#19)4.6% (#8)5.8 (#23)202 (#23)7.0 (#16)115 (#13)4.4 (#15)0.5 (#3)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games21.3 (#9)3.0% (#2)5.6 (#5)219 (#3)7.0 (#6)114 (#15)4.1 (#8)1.2 (#16)
Road Games23.0 (#15)3.0% (#2)5.8 (#13)246 (#11)7.1 (#10)120 (#18)4.2 (#13)1.4 (#14)
Home Games19.6 (#9)3.0% (#5)5.5 (#3)191 (#2)6.8 (#10)107 (#13)4.0 (#9)1.1 (#22)
Last 4 Games17.8 (#6)2.1% (#2)4.8 (#2)126 (#1)4.5 (#1)156 (#28)5.1 (#28)0.2 (#32)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games22.5 - 21.38-8, -1227-7, -706-10 62.5% Under
On Road23.0 - 23.03-5, -2533-4, -1404-4 50% Over
At Home22.0 - 19.65-3, -1224-3, +702-6 75% Under
12/30 CHI10-24Loss -100ATS Loss -6Under 40.5
12/23 @DET27-9Win +33Covered -6.5Under 42.5
12/16 MIA41-17Win +26Covered -7.5Over 45
12/10 @SEA7-21Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 45.5
12/2 @NE10-24Loss -100ATS Loss +6Under 50
11/25 GB24-17Win +53Covered -3.5Under 48
11/18 @CHI20-25Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Over 43.5
11/4 DET24-9Win +43Covered -4.5Under 47
10/28 NO20-30Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @NYJ37-17Win +56Covered -3.5Over 45
10/14 ARI27-17Win +20ATS Push -10Over 43.5
10/7 @PHI23-21Win +158Covered +3.5Under 48.5
9/27 @LAR31-38Loss -100ATS Push +7Over 49
9/23 BUF6-27Loss -100ATS Loss -16.5Under 41
9/16 @GB29-29Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 45
9/9 SF24-16Win +36Covered -6Under 46.5