Must DFS Play (Deshaun Watson) and Fade (Michael Thomas) Advice

Deshaun Watson

He is one of the very best FanDuel values at quarterback. He is projected for 24.6 FanDuel points and based on his $7.8K price he is expected to put up just 20.2 points. He is worth +$1699 more than his salary. He is 12-7 reaching their expected salary based point total (63%). He is 7-12 reaching his projected point total of 24.6. With a better than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. Cam Newton (20.6 FP), Andrew Luck (20 FP), Matt Ryan (20.2 FP), Drew Brees (22.8 FP), and Philip Rivers (22.5 FP) are all worse options.

He is a great value at the quarterback position on DraftKings. He is priced at $5.9K and at this price he is expected to have 22 points on DraftKings. With a projection of 26.7 he is worth +$1260 over this price. He reached his expected point total of 22 DraftKings points 11 times (58%). He is 8-11 reaching his projected point total of 26.7. With a better than expected projection rank there are other quarterbacks you should avoid that are projected for fewer points with the same or higher salary. Cam Newton (21.7 FP), Russell Wilson (19.8 FP), Andrew Luck (22.4 FP), Drew Brees (25.3 FP), and Philip Rivers (24.8 FP) are all worse options.

Jaylen Samuels and Justin Jackson are also good values on both FanDuel and DraftKings on 12/6.

Michael Thomas

He is projected for 21.7 DraftKings points and based on his $8.6K price he is expected to put up at least 23.6 points. He is worth -692 dollars less than his salary. He hit this expected level of performance in 30% of games. He is 16-30 reaching his projected point total of 21.7. With a lower than expected projection rank there are other wide receivers that are projected for more points with the same or lower salary. Keenan Allen (24.1 FP), DeAndre Hopkins (25.6 FP), Mike Evans (22.2 FP), Davante Adams (23.3 FP), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (23.1 FP) are all better options.

Based on salary ($8.3K) he is expected to put up around 17 fantasy points, but his latest FanDuel projection is for 16.3 points (a -295 dollar value). He reached his expected point total of 16.9 FanDuel points 16 times (35%). He is 19-27 reaching his projected point total of 16.3. With a lower than expected projection rank there are other wide receivers that are projected for more points with the same or lower salary. Keenan Allen (18.1 FP), Mike Evans (16.6 FP), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (17.3 FP) are all better options.

Cam Newton and Jimmy Graham are also bad values on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

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This information was last updated at 12/6/2018 7:25:38 AM. SportsLine has a Daily Fantasy Cheat Sheet and Optimal Lineups based on the latest computer projections. It also features lineups from DFS Millionaire, Mike McClure, visit SportsLine.com for more.

TODAY'S GAMES (AVG O/U 47.2) AND PROJECTED FANTASY LEADERS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS O/U 56

  • Drew Brees (QB) 22.8 FD $8.5K, 25.3 DK $6.6K
  • Alvin Kamara (RB) 20.8 FD $8.3K, 24.5 DK $8.1K
  • Jameis Winston (QB) 19.1 FD $7.7K, 21.6 DK $6.2K
  • Mike Evans (WR) 16.6 FD $7.7K, 22.2 DK $7.5K
  • Michael Thomas (WR) 16.3 FD $8.3K, 21.7 DK $8.6K

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS O/U 53

  • Lamar Jackson (QB) 19.7 FD $7.5K, 20.1 DK $5.7K
  • Travis Kelce (TE) 12.9 FD $8K, 16.4 DK $6.7K
  • Gus Edwards (RB) 12.1 FD $6.4K, 13.7 DK $4.5K
  • Spencer Ware 12.3 DK $5.2K
  • Kansas City Defense (DST FD, DK) 8.3 FD $3.7K

LOS ANGELES RAMS VS CHICAGO BEARS O/U 51.5

  • Todd Gurley 24.6 DK $8.8K
  • Mitchell Trubisky 20.8 DK $5.6K
  • Jared Goff 20.5 DK $5.8K
  • Brandin Cooks 17.8 DK $6.8K
  • Robert Woods 17.5 DK $6.7K

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS O/U 51.5

  • Ben Roethlisberger (QB) 24.6 FD $8.6K, 27 DK $6.8K
  • Antonio Brown (WR) 21.3 FD $8.8K, 27.5 DK $9K
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) 17.3 FD $7.5K, 23.1 DK $8.2K
  • Jaylen Samuels (RB) 12.7 FD $4.6K, 14.1 DK $3.7K
  • Jared Cook (TE) 9.5 FD $6.3K, 11.8 DK $5.2K

ATLANTA FALCONS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS O/U 50

  • Aaron Rodgers (QB) 20.9 FD $8.1K, 22.7 DK $6K
  • Matt Ryan (QB) 20.2 FD $8.2K, 22.7 DK $5.6K
  • Davante Adams (WR) 18.2 FD $8.7K, 23.3 DK $8.4K
  • Aaron Jones (RB) 17.7 FD $7.5K, 20.4 DK $7.2K
  • Julio Jones (WR) 15.9 FD $8.4K, 21.6 DK $7.9K

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS HOUSTON TEXANS O/U 49.5

  • Deshaun Watson (QB) 24.6 FD $7.8K, 26.7 DK $5.9K
  • DeAndre Hopkins (WR) 19.4 FD $8.6K, 25.6 DK $7.8K
  • Andrew Luck (QB) 20 FD $7.9K, 22.4 DK $5.9K
  • T.Y. Hilton (WR) 15.1 FD $7.6K, 19.6 DK $6.3K
  • Eric Ebron (TE) 12.9 FD $6.4K, 16.1 DK $5.7K

CINCINNATI BENGALS VS LOS ANGELES CHARGERS O/U 47.5

  • Philip Rivers (QB) 22.5 FD $8.3K, 24.8 DK $6.5K
  • Keenan Allen (WR) 18.1 FD $7.9K, 24.1 DK $7.4K
  • Jeff Driskel (QB) 15.7 FD $6.4K, 16.7 DK $4.4K
  • Tyler Boyd (WR) 12.9 FD $7K, 16.6 DK $6.1K
  • Joe Mixon (RB) 13.5 FD $7K, 15.6 DK $6.4K

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS MIAMI DOLPHINS O/U 47

  • Tom Brady (QB) 21.5 FD $7.6K, 23.9 DK $5.8K
  • Ryan Tannehill (QB) 17.6 FD $6.9K, 19.2 DK $4.8K
  • James White (RB) 14.6 FD $7.2K, 17.7 DK $6.6K
  • Julian Edelman (WR) 13.5 FD $6.9K, 17.2 DK $7.1K
  • Josh Gordon (WR) 11.8 FD $6.7K, 14.4 DK $6K

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS O/U 47

  • Cam Newton (QB) 20.6 FD $8.4K, 21.7 DK $6.3K
  • Baker Mayfield (QB) 18.7 FD $7.5K, 20.6 DK $5.8K
  • Nick Chubb (RB) 14.6 FD $7.7K, 16 DK $6.7K
  • Jarvis Landry (WR) 11.3 FD $5.8K, 14.7 DK $5.8K
  • Duke Johnson (RB) 9.6 FD $5K, 11.5 DK $3.7K

DENVER BRONCOS VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS O/U 45.5

  • Phillip Lindsay (RB) 15.3 FD $7.9K, 17.3 DK $6.3K
  • Nick Mullens (QB) 15 FD $6.4K, 16.6 DK $4.6K
  • Courtland Sutton (WR) 12.4 FD $5.6K, 14.9 DK $4.5K
  • Jeff Wilson (RB) 12.4 FD $5.6K, 14.5 DK $3.8K
  • George Kittle (TE) 11 FD $6.6K, 14 DK $5.5K

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS DALLAS COWBOYS O/U 43

  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB) 21.7 FD $8.8K, 23.8 DK $8.6K
  • Dak Prescott (QB) 20.5 FD $7.4K, 21.7 DK $5.6K
  • Carson Wentz (QB) 16.8 FD $7.3K, 18.4 DK $5.4K
  • Amari Cooper (WR) 14 FD $6.9K, 17.6 DK $6.6K
  • Zach Ertz (TE) 12 FD $7.4K, 15.6 DK $6.4K

NEW YORK GIANTS VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS O/U 41

  • Saquon Barkley (RB) 21.6 FD $8.9K, 25.7 DK $8.9K
  • Eli Manning (QB) 16.6 FD $6.5K, 18.5 DK $5.1K
  • Sterling Shepard (WR) 9.4 FD $5.2K, 11.8 DK $4.4K
  • Evan Engram (TE) 8 FD $5K, 9.8 DK $3.7K
  • Odell Beckham (WR) 14.6 FD $8K

DETROIT LIONS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS O/U 40.5

  • David Johnson (RB) 17.5 FD $7K, 20.3 DK $6.5K
  • Matthew Stafford (QB) 16.3 FD $6.7K, 17.8 DK $5.2K
  • Kenny Golladay (WR) 12.8 FD $7.2K, 16.2 DK $6.4K
  • Larry Fitzgerald (WR) 10.8 FD $6.2K, 13.5 DK $4.9K
  • Josh Rosen 14.5 DK $4.7K

NEW YORK JETS VS BUFFALO BILLS O/U 38.5

  • Josh Allen (QB) 20.6 FD $7.4K, 21.2 DK $5.5K
  • LeSean McCoy (RB) 11.3 FD $5.7K, 13 DK $5K
  • Buffalo Defense (DST) 11.3 FD $4.2K, 11.3 DK $3.2K
  • Isaiah Crowell (RB) 10.4 FD $5.8K, 11.7 DK $3.6K
  • Zay Jones (WR) 8.4 FD $5.1K, 10.2 DK $4.2K
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