Nelson Agholor is Projected to Have a Worst Fantasy Season in 2019

2018 FANTASY RECAP WITH DOWNWARD TREND PROJECTED FOR 2019

Nelson Agholor was not a fantasy star but was worth starting most weeks. He was the #159 ranked fantasy player this season and the #39 WR. Even though he missed a few games he played enough so that his overall fantasy rank was better than what it was based on average fantasy points (#56 WR). He showed an upward trajectory as the season went on. He averaged 5.9 FPs in his first 5 games and 7.8 FP in his final 6 games. Given he still relatively young, he should be able to continue showing improvement next season. Using standard deviation as an indicator of consistency, Agholor is relatively inconsistent capable of very high highs and equally low lows. He averaged 6.5 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 19 fantasy points. Nelson Agholor (2019 Season Projection: 46 Rec, 529 Yards, 3 TDs, 32 Rushyd) is projected to take a significant step downward in the upcoming fantasy season. His rank based on total projected fantasy points has him as the #75 player at his position.

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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

As a young player, his dropoff in fantasy production is disappointing. His fantasy average dropped by 22 percent.

SEASON TREND201820172016
Fantasy Points10313355
FP Average6.58.33.9
Regular Season GP161614

PAST FANTASY PERFORMANCE (2017 TO 2018)

He was the #40 ranked fantasy WR based on total fantasy points. He averaged 6.3 FP per game (#59 ranked based on average). He is trending down based on lower per game fantasy ranking from 2017 to 2018. He is relatively stronger (stats bolded below) than weaker in more categories.

2017-2018FPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (32 Games)2331261504121923900
WR Rank#25#21#29#17#24#30#251#1
Average Stats7.33.9470.3861.200
WR Rank (Averages)#40#43#51#36#49#46#1#1
2018 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (16 Games)101647364973200
WR Rank#40#32#37#49#30#25#227#1
Average Stats6.34460.256.1200
WR Rank (Averages)#59#41#49#72#42#33#1#1
2017 SeasonFPRECRECYDRECTDRECTARGETRUSHYDRUSHTDFUML
Stats (16 Games)13162768895700
WR Rank#21#25#33#7#32#46#183#1
Average Stats8.23.9480.55.90.400
WR Rank (Averages)#26#38#45#13#50#49#1#1

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 8.2 FD points and 10.4 DK points per game. We used his second highest game as his ceiling and second lowest as his floor. On DraftKings his floor was 1.8 and on FanDuel it was 1.3 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 23 and 19 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All8.2 ($5.9K)4 G, 7 B10.4 ($4.8K)3 G, 6 B
12/30 @WAS18.5--21--
12/23 HOU20.1 ($5.3K)+1225.6 ($3.7K)+15.2
12/16 @LAR1.3 ($5.3K)-6.81.8 ($3.6K)-8.6
12/9 @DAL5.9 ($5.3K)-2.26.9 ($3.6K)-3.5
12/3 WAS7.6--9.6--
11/25 NYG1.7 ($5.3K)-6.42.2 ($4.1K)-8.2
11/11 DAL10.8 ($6K)+2.713.3 ($4.3K)+2.9
10/28 @JAC7.8 ($6K)--9.3 ($5K)--
10/21 CAR5 ($6K)-3.28 ($5K)-2.4
10/11 @NYG10.6 ($6.1K)+2.412.1 ($5.2K)--
10/7 MIN6.5 ($6.1K)-1.78.5 ($5.3K)--
9/30 @TEN4.7 ($6.3K)-3.47.2 ($5.7K)-3.2
9/23 IND4.4 ($6.6K)-3.86.4 ($6.1K)-4
9/16 @TB19 ($6.1K)+10.823 ($6.1K)+12.6
9/6 ATL9.5--13.5--