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The Patriots are favored to win by 4 points. They are -200 to win based on the money line which carries a 'juice adjusted' implied probability of 63.7%. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 47.5 points. If you extrapolate the spread and total lines you get a Vegas expected score of Patriots 25.8 and Chargers 21.8. The Sportsline game simulations favor the Patriots.
ADVANCING IN EACH ROUND
Their chances of then winning the AFC is 30.6%. They have 15.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The following is the percentage of simulations the Patriots win against the rest of the remaining playoff teams.
- Underdog vs the Saints winning 48.3%
- Underdog vs the Chiefs winning 41.7%
- Favored vs the Rams by 54.1%
- Favored vs the Eagles by 65.4%
- Favored vs the Cowboys by 61.7%
- Favored vs the Colts by 69%
They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.
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|Season Recap||PPG-PA||Money Line||ATS Record||O/U Record|
|All Games||27.2 - 20.3||11-5, -373||9-7, +130||5-11 68.8% Under|
|On Road||21.6 - 24.0||3-5, -398||3-5, -250||3-5 62.5% Under|
|At Home||32.9 - 16.6||8-0, +246||6-2, +380||2-6 75% Under|
|12/30 NYJ||38-3||Win +12||Covered -14||Under 46.5|
|12/23 BUF||24-12||Win +13||ATS Loss -13.5||Under 45|
|12/16 @PIT||10-17||Loss -100||ATS Loss -2.5||Under 55.5|
|12/9 @MIA||33-34||Loss -100||ATS Loss -9||Over 49.5|
|12/2 MIN||24-10||Win +38||Covered -6||Under 50|
|11/25 @NYJ||27-13||Win +17||Covered -13||Under 46.5|
|11/11 @TEN||10-34||Loss -100||ATS Loss -6.5||Under 46.5|
|11/4 GB||31-17||Win +44||Covered -5||Under 56.5|
|10/29 @BUF||25-6||Win +8||Covered -13.5||Under 44.5|
|10/21 @CHI||38-31||Win +77||Covered -2||Over 49.5|
|10/14 KC||43-40||Win +53||ATS Loss -3.5||Over 59.5|
|10/4 IND||38-24||Win +15||Covered -10.5||Over 50|
|9/30 MIA||38-7||Win +33||Covered -6.5||Under 50.5|
|9/23 @DET||10-26||Loss -100||ATS Loss -6.5||Under 55|
|9/16 @JAC||20-31||Loss -100||ATS Loss -2||Over 44.5|
|9/9 HOU||27-20||Win +38||Covered -6.5||Under 49|