New England Patriots Have a 16% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team's past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team's performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team's past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team's performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team's past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team's performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team's past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team's performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team's past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team's performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Patriots are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. The computer gives them a 16% chance of winning the Super Bowl making them a good value at 6/1, 14.3%. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 28.3% chance at 3/1, 25%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went as expected. They won 11 games vs an expected win total of 11.5. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 100% home win percentage was much better than expected (74.4%). They won 37.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (69.7%). Anyone who backed the Patriots in all of their games on the money line would be down -373 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Patriots are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a lower offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games27.2 - 20.311-5, -3739-7, +1305-11 68.8% Under
On Road21.6 - 24.03-5, -3983-5, -2503-5 62.5% Under
At Home32.9 - 16.68-0, +2466-2, +3802-6 75% Under
12/30 NYJ38-3Win +12Covered -14Under 46.5
12/23 BUF24-12Win +13ATS Loss -13.5Under 45
12/16 @PIT10-17Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @MIA33-34Loss -100ATS Loss -9Over 49.5
12/2 MIN24-10Win +38Covered -6Under 50
11/25 @NYJ27-13Win +17Covered -13Under 46.5
11/11 @TEN10-34Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 46.5
11/4 GB31-17Win +44Covered -5Under 56.5
10/29 @BUF25-6Win +8Covered -13.5Under 44.5
10/21 @CHI38-31Win +77Covered -2Over 49.5
10/14 KC43-40Win +53ATS Loss -3.5Over 59.5
10/4 IND38-24Win +15Covered -10.5Over 50
9/30 MIA38-7Win +33Covered -6.5Under 50.5
9/23 @DET10-26Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 55
9/16 @JAC20-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 44.5
9/9 HOU27-20Win +38Covered -6.5Under 49

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games27.2 (#4)4.5% (#12)6.1 (#6)275 (#9)7.7 (#10)127 (#5)4.3 (#20)1.1 (#6)
On the Road21.6 (#19)3.2% (#22)5.9 (#16)269 (#11)7.3 (#14)98 (#25)3.9 (#29)0.8 (#1)
At Home32.9 (#3)5.6% (#6)6.3 (#2)281 (#10)8.1 (#9)157 (#4)4.5 (#12)1.5 (#21)
Last 4 Games26.2 (#7)4.6% (#9)6.0 (#6)253 (#14)7.4 (#9)144 (#5)4.6 (#12)1.0 (#7)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.3 (#7)3.7% (#10)6.2 (#18)261 (#21)6.9 (#5)113 (#11)4.9 (#29)1.8 (#5)
Road Games24.0 (#19)4.5% (#21)6.7 (#28)289 (#29)7.8 (#22)127 (#23)5.1 (#30)1.2 (#18)
Home Games16.6 (#2)2.9% (#4)5.6 (#9)234 (#8)6.0 (#1)99 (#8)4.7 (#21)2.2 (#2)
Last 4 Games16.5 (#5)3.8% (#16)6.7 (#17)221 (#13)7.2 (#22)131 (#21)6.0 (#31)2.0 (#2)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games27.2 - 20.311-5, -3739-7, +1305-11 68.8% Under
On Road21.6 - 24.03-5, -3983-5, -2503-5 62.5% Under
At Home32.9 - 16.68-0, +2466-2, +3802-6 75% Under
12/30 NYJ38-3Win +12Covered -14Under 46.5
12/23 BUF24-12Win +13ATS Loss -13.5Under 45
12/16 @PIT10-17Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @MIA33-34Loss -100ATS Loss -9Over 49.5
12/2 MIN24-10Win +38Covered -6Under 50
11/25 @NYJ27-13Win +17Covered -13Under 46.5
11/11 @TEN10-34Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 46.5
11/4 GB31-17Win +44Covered -5Under 56.5
10/29 @BUF25-6Win +8Covered -13.5Under 44.5
10/21 @CHI38-31Win +77Covered -2Over 49.5
10/14 KC43-40Win +53ATS Loss -3.5Over 59.5
10/4 IND38-24Win +15Covered -10.5Over 50
9/30 MIA38-7Win +33Covered -6.5Under 50.5
9/23 @DET10-26Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 55
9/16 @JAC20-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 44.5
9/9 HOU27-20Win +38Covered -6.5Under 49