New England Patriots Have a 17.8% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Patriots are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 6/1, 14.3%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 17.8% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 30.1% chance at 3/1, 25%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went as expected. They won 11 games vs an expected win total of 11.5. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 100% home win percentage was much better than expected (74.4%). They won 37.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (69.7%). Anyone who backed the Patriots in all of their games on the money line would be down -373 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Patriots are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a lower offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games27.2 - 20.311-5, -3739-7, +1305-11 68.8% Under
On Road21.6 - 24.03-5, -3983-5, -2503-5 62.5% Under
At Home32.9 - 16.68-0, +2466-2, +3802-6 75% Under
12/30 NYJ38-3Win +12Covered -14Under 46.5
12/23 BUF24-12Win +13ATS Loss -13.5Under 45
12/16 @PIT10-17Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @MIA33-34Loss -100ATS Loss -9Over 49.5
12/2 MIN24-10Win +38Covered -6Under 50
11/25 @NYJ27-13Win +17Covered -13Under 46.5
11/11 @TEN10-34Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 46.5
11/4 GB31-17Win +44Covered -5Under 56.5
10/29 @BUF25-6Win +8Covered -13.5Under 44.5
10/21 @CHI38-31Win +77Covered -2Over 49.5
10/14 KC43-40Win +53ATS Loss -3.5Over 59.5
10/4 IND38-24Win +15Covered -10.5Over 50
9/30 MIA38-7Win +33Covered -6.5Under 50.5
9/23 @DET10-26Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 55
9/16 @JAC20-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 44.5
9/9 HOU27-20Win +38Covered -6.5Under 49

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games27.2 (#4)4.5% (#12)6.1 (#6)275 (#9)7.7 (#10)127 (#5)4.3 (#20)1.1 (#6)
On the Road21.6 (#19)3.2% (#22)5.9 (#16)269 (#11)7.3 (#14)98 (#25)3.9 (#29)0.8 (#1)
At Home32.9 (#3)5.6% (#6)6.3 (#2)281 (#10)8.1 (#9)157 (#4)4.5 (#12)1.5 (#21)
Last 4 Games26.2 (#7)4.6% (#9)6.0 (#6)253 (#14)7.4 (#9)144 (#5)4.6 (#12)1.0 (#7)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.3 (#7)3.7% (#10)6.2 (#18)261 (#21)6.9 (#5)113 (#11)4.9 (#29)1.8 (#5)
Road Games24.0 (#19)4.5% (#21)6.7 (#28)289 (#29)7.8 (#22)127 (#23)5.1 (#30)1.2 (#18)
Home Games16.6 (#2)2.9% (#4)5.6 (#9)234 (#8)6.0 (#1)99 (#8)4.7 (#21)2.2 (#2)
Last 4 Games16.5 (#5)3.8% (#16)6.7 (#17)221 (#13)7.2 (#22)131 (#21)6.0 (#31)2.0 (#2)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games27.2 - 20.311-5, -3739-7, +1305-11 68.8% Under
On Road21.6 - 24.03-5, -3983-5, -2503-5 62.5% Under
At Home32.9 - 16.68-0, +2466-2, +3802-6 75% Under
12/30 NYJ38-3Win +12Covered -14Under 46.5
12/23 BUF24-12Win +13ATS Loss -13.5Under 45
12/16 @PIT10-17Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @MIA33-34Loss -100ATS Loss -9Over 49.5
12/2 MIN24-10Win +38Covered -6Under 50
11/25 @NYJ27-13Win +17Covered -13Under 46.5
11/11 @TEN10-34Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 46.5
11/4 GB31-17Win +44Covered -5Under 56.5
10/29 @BUF25-6Win +8Covered -13.5Under 44.5
10/21 @CHI38-31Win +77Covered -2Over 49.5
10/14 KC43-40Win +53ATS Loss -3.5Over 59.5
10/4 IND38-24Win +15Covered -10.5Over 50
9/30 MIA38-7Win +33Covered -6.5Under 50.5
9/23 @DET10-26Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 55
9/16 @JAC20-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 44.5
9/9 HOU27-20Win +38Covered -6.5Under 49