New England Patriots Have a 19.8% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

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The Patriots are +3 point underdogs. They are +138 to win based on the money line which carries a 'juice adjusted' implied probability of 40.2%. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 55.5 points. If you extrapolate the spread and total lines you get a Vegas expected score of Patriots 26.2 and Chiefs 29.2. The Sportsline game simulations favor the Chiefs.


They have 19.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

The following is the percentage of simulations the Patriots win against the rest of the remaining playoff teams.

  • Favored vs the Saints by 51.9%
  • Favored vs the Rams by 59.3%

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

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Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games27.2 - 20.311-5, -3739-7, +1305-11 68.8% Under
On Road21.6 - 24.03-5, -3983-5, -2503-5 62.5% Under
At Home32.9 - 16.68-0, +2466-2, +3802-6 75% Under
12/30 NYJ38-3Win +12Covered -14Under 46.5
12/23 BUF24-12Win +13ATS Loss -13.5Under 45
12/16 @PIT10-17Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 55.5
12/9 @MIA33-34Loss -100ATS Loss -9Over 49.5
12/2 MIN24-10Win +38Covered -6Under 50
11/25 @NYJ27-13Win +17Covered -13Under 46.5
11/11 @TEN10-34Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 46.5
11/4 GB31-17Win +44Covered -5Under 56.5
10/29 @BUF25-6Win +8Covered -13.5Under 44.5
10/21 @CHI38-31Win +77Covered -2Over 49.5
10/14 KC43-40Win +53ATS Loss -3.5Over 59.5
10/4 IND38-24Win +15Covered -10.5Over 50
9/30 MIA38-7Win +33Covered -6.5Under 50.5
9/23 @DET10-26Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 55
9/16 @JAC20-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 44.5
9/9 HOU27-20Win +38Covered -6.5Under 49