New Orleans Saints Have a 17.1% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went much better than expected. They won 13 games vs an expected win total of 10.9. Their strength was in road games. They won 87.5% on the road which was much better than expected (62.9%). They won 6 at home and were expected to win 5.8. Anyone who backed the Saints in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +49 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +340 profit risking 110 to win 100 (10-6 ATS). The Saints have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a lower TD per play allowed rate.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games31.5 - 22.113-3, +4910-6, +3407-9 56.2% Under
On Road28.9 - 18.57-1, +3506-2, +3802-6 75% Under
At Home34.1 - 25.66-2, +494-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CAR14-33Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 41.5
12/23 PIT31-28Win +35ATS Loss -6.5Over 53
12/17 @CAR12-9Win +38ATS Loss -6Under 50.5
12/9 @TB28-14Win +22Covered -9.5Under 54.5
11/29 @DAL10-13Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 51.5
11/22 ATL31-17Win +14Covered -13Under 60.5
11/18 PHI48-7Win +27Covered -7Under 56.5
11/11 @CIN51-14Win +36Covered -6Over 53.5
11/4 LAR45-35Win +115Covered +2Over 57.5
10/28 @MIN30-20Win +65Covered -2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @BAL24-23Win +125Covered +2.5Under 49.5
10/8 WAS43-19Win +37Covered -6Over 51.5
9/30 @NYG33-18Win +59Covered -3.5Under 51.5
9/23 @ATL43-37Win +105Covered +1.5Over 54
9/16 CLE21-18Win +21ATS Loss -9.5Under 51
9/9 TB40-48Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 49.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games31.5 (#3)6.0% (#2)6.3 (#10)261 (#15)8.0 (#7)127 (#6)4.3 (#17)1.0 (#3)
On the Road28.9 (#2)4.7% (#7)5.7 (#18)224 (#22)7.0 (#21)140 (#3)4.4 (#15)0.9 (#3)
At Home34.1 (#2)7.3% (#1)6.9 (#5)297 (#8)9.1 (#1)114 (#15)4.2 (#21)1.1 (#12)
Last 4 Games21.2 (#19)4.2% (#14)5.7 (#19)212 (#21)6.6 (#21)124 (#12)4.6 (#11)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.1 (#14)4.5% (#21)6.4 (#15)289 (#31)8.1 (#29)80 (#2)3.6 (#2)1.5 (#13)
Road Games18.5 (#2)4.2% (#18)6.2 (#8)264 (#21)7.7 (#18)86 (#3)3.9 (#5)1.4 (#14)
Home Games25.6 (#25)4.8% (#27)6.5 (#22)314 (#32)8.5 (#32)74 (#3)3.3 (#1)1.6 (#12)
Last 4 Games21.0 (#16)4.0% (#19)5.7 (#20)260 (#23)7.0 (#19)95 (#9)3.8 (#7)1.2 (#16)

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Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games31.5 - 22.113-3, +4910-6, +3407-9 56.2% Under
On Road28.9 - 18.57-1, +3506-2, +3802-6 75% Under
At Home34.1 - 25.66-2, +494-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CAR14-33Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 41.5
12/23 PIT31-28Win +35ATS Loss -6.5Over 53
12/17 @CAR12-9Win +38ATS Loss -6Under 50.5
12/9 @TB28-14Win +22Covered -9.5Under 54.5
11/29 @DAL10-13Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 51.5
11/22 ATL31-17Win +14Covered -13Under 60.5
11/18 PHI48-7Win +27Covered -7Under 56.5
11/11 @CIN51-14Win +36Covered -6Over 53.5
11/4 LAR45-35Win +115Covered +2Over 57.5
10/28 @MIN30-20Win +65Covered -2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @BAL24-23Win +125Covered +2.5Under 49.5
10/8 WAS43-19Win +37Covered -6Over 51.5
9/30 @NYG33-18Win +59Covered -3.5Under 51.5
9/23 @ATL43-37Win +105Covered +1.5Over 54
9/16 CLE21-18Win +21ATS Loss -9.5Under 51
9/9 TB40-48Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 49.5