New Orleans Saints Have a 17.8% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Saints could take a step back next season. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 8/1, 11.1%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 17.8% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 33.7% chance at 4/1, 20%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

Their 13 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +2.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 87.5% on the road which was much better than expected (62.9%). They won 6 at home and were expected to win 5.8. Anyone who backed the Saints in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +49 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +340 profit risking 110 to win 100 (10-6 ATS). The Saints have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a lower TD per play allowed rate.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games31.5 - 22.113-3, +4910-6, +3407-9 56.2% Under
On Road28.9 - 18.57-1, +3506-2, +3802-6 75% Under
At Home34.1 - 25.66-2, +494-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CAR14-33Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 41.5
12/23 PIT31-28Win +35ATS Loss -6.5Over 53
12/17 @CAR12-9Win +38ATS Loss -6Under 50.5
12/9 @TB28-14Win +22Covered -9.5Under 54.5
11/29 @DAL10-13Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 51.5
11/22 ATL31-17Win +14Covered -13Under 60.5
11/18 PHI48-7Win +27Covered -7Under 56.5
11/11 @CIN51-14Win +36Covered -6Over 53.5
11/4 LAR45-35Win +115Covered +2Over 57.5
10/28 @MIN30-20Win +65Covered -2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @BAL24-23Win +125Covered +2.5Under 49.5
10/8 WAS43-19Win +37Covered -6Over 51.5
9/30 @NYG33-18Win +59Covered -3.5Under 51.5
9/23 @ATL43-37Win +105Covered +1.5Over 54
9/16 CLE21-18Win +21ATS Loss -9.5Under 51
9/9 TB40-48Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 49.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games31.5 (#3)6.0% (#2)6.3 (#10)261 (#15)8.0 (#7)127 (#6)4.3 (#17)1.0 (#3)
On the Road28.9 (#2)4.7% (#7)5.7 (#18)224 (#22)7.0 (#21)140 (#3)4.4 (#15)0.9 (#3)
At Home34.1 (#2)7.3% (#1)6.9 (#5)297 (#8)9.1 (#1)114 (#15)4.2 (#21)1.1 (#12)
Last 4 Games21.2 (#19)4.2% (#14)5.7 (#19)212 (#21)6.6 (#21)124 (#12)4.6 (#11)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.1 (#14)4.5% (#21)6.4 (#15)289 (#31)8.1 (#29)80 (#2)3.6 (#2)1.5 (#13)
Road Games18.5 (#2)4.2% (#18)6.2 (#8)264 (#21)7.7 (#18)86 (#3)3.9 (#5)1.4 (#14)
Home Games25.6 (#25)4.8% (#27)6.5 (#22)314 (#32)8.5 (#32)74 (#3)3.3 (#1)1.6 (#12)
Last 4 Games21.0 (#16)4.0% (#19)5.7 (#20)260 (#23)7.0 (#19)95 (#9)3.8 (#7)1.2 (#16)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games31.5 - 22.113-3, +4910-6, +3407-9 56.2% Under
On Road28.9 - 18.57-1, +3506-2, +3802-6 75% Under
At Home34.1 - 25.66-2, +494-4, -405-3 62.5% Over
12/30 CAR14-33Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 41.5
12/23 PIT31-28Win +35ATS Loss -6.5Over 53
12/17 @CAR12-9Win +38ATS Loss -6Under 50.5
12/9 @TB28-14Win +22Covered -9.5Under 54.5
11/29 @DAL10-13Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 51.5
11/22 ATL31-17Win +14Covered -13Under 60.5
11/18 PHI48-7Win +27Covered -7Under 56.5
11/11 @CIN51-14Win +36Covered -6Over 53.5
11/4 LAR45-35Win +115Covered +2Over 57.5
10/28 @MIN30-20Win +65Covered -2.5Under 53.5
10/21 @BAL24-23Win +125Covered +2.5Under 49.5
10/8 WAS43-19Win +37Covered -6Over 51.5
9/30 @NYG33-18Win +59Covered -3.5Under 51.5
9/23 @ATL43-37Win +105Covered +1.5Over 54
9/16 CLE21-18Win +21ATS Loss -9.5Under 51
9/9 TB40-48Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 49.5