New York Jets Projected to Double Win Total with Le'Veon Bell

SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

The Jets have a soft schedule and with Le'Veon Bell they are projected to win 8 games despite still being in the bottom half of the power ranking. They only averaged 20.8 points last season and with Bell, Gase and Darnold in Year 2 that is projected to improve to 23.5 per game.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Jets could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. But at 4 wins, it is not hard to improve. Their odds to win the conference are just 40/1, 2.4% and to win the Super Bowl are 80/1, 1.2%. Their simulation based chances to win the conference are 0.8% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.3 percent.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 5.9 wins. Their 4 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they struggled. Their 25% home win percentage was much worse than expected (45%). They won 25% on the road which was as expected (28.3%). Anyone who backed the Jets in all of their games on the money line would be down -160 units. Against the spread, they have lost -600 units risking 110 to win 100 (5-10 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better defensive TD rate.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games20.8 - 27.64-12, -1605-10, -60010-6 62.5% Over
On Road18.1 - 24.12-6, -1603-5, -2504-4 50% Over
At Home23.5 - 31.02-6, -4362-5, -3506-2 75% Over
12/30 @NE3-38Loss -100ATS Loss +14Under 46.5
12/23 GB38-44Loss -100ATS Loss +3Over 47
12/15 HOU22-29Loss -100ATS Push +7Over 44.5
12/9 @BUF27-23Win +180Covered +4.5Over 37
12/2 @TEN22-26Loss -100Covered +10Over 40.5
11/25 NE13-27Loss -100ATS Loss +13Under 46.5
11/11 BUF10-41Loss -100ATS Loss -7Over 37.5
11/4 @MIA6-13Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 43
10/28 @CHI10-24Loss -100ATS Loss +8.5Under 42.5
10/21 MIN17-37Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Over 45
10/14 IND42-34Win +69Covered -2.5Over 47.5
10/7 DEN34-16Win +95Covered +1Over 42.5
9/30 @JAC12-31Loss -100ATS Loss +7.5Over 40.5
9/20 @CLE17-21Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 41
9/16 MIA12-20Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 43
9/10 @DET48-17Win +260Covered +7Over 44

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.8 (#23)3.1% (#27)5.4 (#31)213 (#27)6.5 (#28)101 (#26)4.0 (#29)1.9 (#29)
On the Road18.1 (#25)2.5% (#30)4.9 (#31)173 (#31)5.8 (#31)98 (#24)3.8 (#30)1.9 (#25)
At Home23.5 (#17)3.7% (#23)5.9 (#24)253 (#18)7.0 (#21)105 (#22)4.2 (#23)1.9 (#30)
Last 4 Games22.5 (#15)4.4% (#13)5.5 (#26)233 (#18)7.4 (#10)80 (#30)3.1 (#32)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games27.6 (#29)4.4% (#19)6.2 (#27)272 (#24)7.5 (#17)126 (#26)4.6 (#19)1.2 (#16)
Road Games24.1 (#20)3.5% (#6)5.8 (#16)251 (#14)7.0 (#8)122 (#19)4.3 (#15)1.5 (#9)
Home Games31.0 (#32)5.3% (#30)6.6 (#31)294 (#30)7.9 (#27)130 (#26)4.9 (#27)1.0 (#25)
Last 4 Games33.5 (#32)5.2% (#29)6.7 (#32)298 (#30)7.8 (#29)120 (#19)4.9 (#26)1.0 (#21)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games20.8 - 27.64-12, -1605-10, -60010-6 62.5% Over
On Road18.1 - 24.12-6, -1603-5, -2504-4 50% Over
At Home23.5 - 31.02-6, -4362-5, -3506-2 75% Over
12/30 @NE3-38Loss -100ATS Loss +14Under 46.5
12/23 GB38-44Loss -100ATS Loss +3Over 47
12/15 HOU22-29Loss -100ATS Push +7Over 44.5
12/9 @BUF27-23Win +180Covered +4.5Over 37
12/2 @TEN22-26Loss -100Covered +10Over 40.5
11/25 NE13-27Loss -100ATS Loss +13Under 46.5
11/11 BUF10-41Loss -100ATS Loss -7Over 37.5
11/4 @MIA6-13Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 43
10/28 @CHI10-24Loss -100ATS Loss +8.5Under 42.5
10/21 MIN17-37Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Over 45
10/14 IND42-34Win +69Covered -2.5Over 47.5
10/7 DEN34-16Win +95Covered +1Over 42.5
9/30 @JAC12-31Loss -100ATS Loss +7.5Over 40.5
9/20 @CLE17-21Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 41
9/16 MIA12-20Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 43
9/10 @DET48-17Win +260Covered +7Over 44