NFL 2019 Futures: Patriots, Chiefs, Rams and Saints All Good Value to Return to Conference Championship Game

There is a small 5% difference between conference leaders. The New England Patriots lead with a 32.1 percent chance of winning the AFC and the Kansas City Chiefs are at 27.2%. Both teams' conference championship percentages have been holding steady. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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New England Patriots11.792.3%95.8%4/1 (20%)32.1%
Kansas City Chiefs11.459.9%89.7%3/1 (25%)27.2%
Los Angeles Chargers10.434.3%75.9%7/1 (12.5%)12.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.639.7%61.1%7/1 (12.5%)9.4%
Baltimore Ravens9.327.4%49.8%10/1 (9.1%)8.7%
Indianapolis Colts8.850.9%56.8%10/1 (9.1%)3.2%
Cleveland Browns9.329.8%51.7%10/1 (9.1%)2.4%
Houston Texans8.334.0%41.0%12/1 (7.7%)2.0%
Denver Broncos8.35.7%28.8%30/1 (3.2%)0.9%
New York Jets7.56.8%18.3%40/1 (2.4%)0.4%
Tennessee Titans6.39.5%11.7%30/1 (3.2%)0.4%
Jacksonville Jaguars5.75.7%7.1%20/1 (4.8%)0.2%
Cincinnati Bengals6.73.1%8.5%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Buffalo Bills5.50.6%2.4%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Dolphins4.80.3%1.0%150/1 (0.7%)--
Oakland Raiders4.40.1%0.5%50/1 (2%)--

The difference at the top of the conference is small at 4%. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 33.8 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 29.9%. Neither team has shown a significant positive or negative trend in recent forecasts. The playoff race should be a tight one with only -0.11 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

New Orleans Saints11.788.3%96.0%4/1 (20%)33.8%
Los Angeles Rams11.183.2%92.2%4/1 (20%)29.9%
Philadelphia Eagles9.252.6%64.1%10/1 (9.1%)9.1%
Chicago Bears8.834.9%52.5%8/1 (11.1%)6.5%
Seattle Seahawks8.011.1%34.4%15/1 (6.2%)4.4%
Minnesota Vikings8.329.4%42.8%8/1 (11.1%)3.9%
Dallas Cowboys8.122.8%36.5%8/1 (11.1%)3.4%
Atlanta Falcons7.95.9%26.7%15/1 (6.2%)1.9%
Green Bay Packers8.021.5%35.0%8/1 (11.1%)1.7%
Detroit Lions7.514.2%26.0%50/1 (2%)1.6%
New York Giants7.818.9%30.9%20/1 (4.8%)1.3%
Carolina Panthers7.12.9%15.6%30/1 (3.2%)0.8%
San Francisco 49ers7.45.7%22.7%25/1 (3.8%)0.8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.82.9%14.5%40/1 (2.4%)0.5%
Washington Redskins6.05.7%9.4%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Arizona Cardinals4.20.1%0.7%50/1 (2%)--

Below are the latest NFL Futures for winning the Super Bowl. At the top, the Patriots have a 2 percentage point lead over the Saints. At the bottom of the contenders list, 2.2 percentage points separate the Steelers from the Bears.

New England Patriots8/111.1%18.8%--
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%17.1%--
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%16.5%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%14.9%--
Los Angeles Chargers14/16.7%6.5%--
Baltimore Ravens20/14.8%4.8%--
Pittsburgh Steelers14/16.7%4.7%--
Philadelphia Eagles20/14.8%3.6%--
Chicago Bears16/15.9%2.5%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%1.9%--
Minnesota Vikings16/15.9%1.6%--
Indianapolis Colts20/14.8%1.2%--
Dallas Cowboys16/15.9%1.2%--