NFL Divisional Latest Odds: Public Favors Road Underdogs, But Computer Favors Saints, Chiefs, and Patriots

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Chiefs to win the game. The projected score is Chiefs 32 and Colts 25, with Kansas City winning 65% of the time. At -227 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 69 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Kansas City won their lone matchup in recent seasons 30 to 14. The computer would set the spread at KC -7.5. Roughly 55% of the public is betting on the Colts to cover, but the betting line has not moved from its opening -5 so money seems to be evenly split. The Chiefs have a record of 6-5-0 as a favorite. The Colts have a record of 4-4-0 as an underdog.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts5726.024.634%35%14.0 (0 Wins)
Kansas City Chiefs-5.031.032.166%65%30.0 (1 Win)

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Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rams to win the game. The projected score is Rams 29 and Cowboys 23, and Los Angeles is winning 64% of the sims. At -345 on the moneyline, the Rams implied probability to win is 78 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Cowboys based on how the moneyline is moving. Los Angeles won their lone matchup in recent seasons 35 to 30. The projection based point spread is LAR -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The 56% public lean is on Dallas to cover. The Rams have a record of 7-7-2 as a favorite. The Cowboys have a record of 6-3-0 as an underdog.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys5021.522.726%36%30.0 (0 Wins)
Los Angeles Rams-7.028.529.474%64%35.0 (1 Win)

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Sunday, January 13, 2019

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Patriots to win the game. The projected score is Patriots 26 and Chargers 21, and New England is winning 61% of simulations. The Patriots are -200 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 67 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Chargers to win. New England won their lone matchup in recent seasons 21 to 13. The computer would set the spread at NE -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers with the Vegas moving from +4.5 to +4. Nearly 60 percent of the public is betting on the Chargers to cover. The Patriots have a record of 9-7-0 as a favorite. The Chargers have a record of 4-1-0 as an underdog.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers47.521.821.336%39%13.0 (0 Wins)
New England Patriots-4.025.726.164%61%21.0 (1 Win)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Saints to win the game. The projected score is Saints 32 and Eagles 23, with New Orleans winning 67% of the time. The Saints are -385 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 79 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. New Orleans won their lone matchup in recent seasons 48 to 7. The computer would set the spread at NO -9. The line has not moved from the opening Saints -8.0, but nearly 60 percent of people are betting on the Eagles to cover. The Saints have a record of 7-6-0 as a favorite. The Eagles have a record of 2-2-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (NO won by 41) New Orleans covered the spread. The Saints were -7 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles5121.522.724%33%7.0 (0 Wins)
New Orleans Saints-8.029.531.576%67%48.0 (1 Win)

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