NFL Futures Updated: Top 4 Teams (Chiefs, Patriots, Saints, Rams) Are All Good Bets

There is a small 0.6% difference between the Patriots and the Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs at 29.1% trails the New England Patriots at 29.7%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.36 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots11.187.4%92.7%11/4 (26.7%)29.7%
Kansas City Chiefs11.062.8%88.0%11/4 (26.7%)29.1%
Los Angeles Chargers9.833.9%69.8%9/1 (10%)11.5%
Indianapolis Colts9.248.9%60.7%6/1 (14.3%)7.4%
Cleveland Browns9.236.1%55.1%9/1 (10%)6.0%
Baltimore Ravens8.928.3%48.3%20/1 (4.8%)5.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.831.6%49.7%10/1 (9.1%)4.9%
Houston Texans8.122.9%35.3%20/1 (4.8%)2.5%
Tennessee Titans7.315.9%23.9%40/1 (2.4%)1.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.012.3%19.0%20/1 (4.8%)0.9%
New York Jets7.49.0%21.0%30/1 (3.2%)0.7%
Denver Broncos7.03.0%13.9%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
Cincinnati Bengals6.54.0%9.3%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Buffalo Bills6.63.3%10.1%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Oakland Raiders5.10.4%2.1%20/1 (4.8%)--
Miami Dolphins4.60.4%1.2%250/1 (0.4%)--

There is a 4.1% difference between conference leaders. The Los Angeles Rams at 22% trails the New Orleans Saints at 26%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. This is a wide open conference with 8 teams having at least a four percent chance of winning.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints10.880.0%88.6%5/1 (16.7%)26.0%
Los Angeles Rams10.161.7%78.4%5/1 (16.7%)22.0%
Philadelphia Eagles9.658.5%70.0%5/1 (16.7%)12.7%
Chicago Bears8.831.6%49.8%5/1 (16.7%)7.9%
Seattle Seahawks9.027.9%53.2%15/1 (6.2%)7.9%
Dallas Cowboys8.526.9%42.8%8/1 (11.1%)5.0%
Green Bay Packers8.426.8%42.1%9/1 (10%)5.0%
Minnesota Vikings8.224.5%37.9%9/1 (10%)4.7%
Detroit Lions7.917.2%30.7%50/1 (2%)2.8%
Atlanta Falcons7.79.7%25.1%15/1 (6.2%)1.6%
San Francisco 49ers7.69.4%25.3%20/1 (4.8%)1.6%
Carolina Panthers7.26.7%17.9%25/1 (3.8%)1.4%
New York Giants6.87.9%14.4%100/1 (1%)0.6%
Washington Redskins6.46.6%11.7%150/1 (0.7%)0.3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.23.6%9.2%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Arizona Cardinals5.21.0%2.9%100/1 (1%)--

It is a wide open field with more teams with a decent chance of winning it all than total playoff teams. There are 14 teams winning the championship in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Patriots have a 16.6 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 1.2 percentage points behind the Chiefs. Teams are bunched together at the bottom of the contenders list with just 0.1 percentage points separating the #12 ranked team from the #14 ranked team.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%17.8%--
New England Patriots6/114.3%16.6%--
New Orleans Saints12/17.7%13.0%--
Los Angeles Rams12/17.7%11.1%--
Los Angeles Chargers18/15.3%6.3%--
Philadelphia Eagles12/17.7%5.6%--
Chicago Bears12/17.7%3.8%--
Indianapolis Colts12/17.7%3.6%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%3.3%--
Cleveland Browns18/15.3%2.9%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%2.3%--
Pittsburgh Steelers20/14.8%2.2%--
Dallas Cowboys18/15.3%2.2%--
Green Bay Packers20/14.8%2.0%--
Minnesota Vikings20/14.8%1.8%--
Houston Texans40/12.4%1.1%--
Detroit Lions100/11.0%1.0%--