NFL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard

Thursday, November 08, 2018

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Steelers to win the game. The projected score is Steelers 30 and Panthers 25, and Pittsburgh is winning 61% of the sims. The Steelers are -180 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at PIT -5.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Panthers with the Vegas moving from +4 to +3.5. The Steelers have a record of 8-12-0 as a favorite. The Panthers have a record of 8-3-0 as an underdog. The Panthers are 7-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Steelers are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Panthers51.524.024.638%39%--
Pittsburgh Steelers-3.527.529.962%61%--

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Sunday, November 11, 2018

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Falcons to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Falcons 27 and Browns 22, with Atlanta winning 62% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Falcons is -227 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Falcons since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is ATL -5. More of the action seems to be on the Falcons as the Vegas line has moved from +2.5 to 4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Falcons are 9-11-0. As an underdog, the Browns are 8-14-0. The Falcons are 4-9-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns are 3-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons50.527.527.466%62%--
Cleveland Browns+4.523.022.534%38%--

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New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Saints over the Bengals despite being on the road. The projected score is Saints 34 and Bengals 24, with New Orleans winning 69% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Saints is -250 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Saints based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NO -10. More of the action seems to be on the Saints as the Vegas line has moved from +3.5 to 5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 11-6-0. As an underdog, the Bengals are 8-5-0. The Saints are 4-0-0 ATS on the road this season. The Bengals are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Saints5429.833.568%69%--
Cincinnati Bengals+5.524.223.632%31%--

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Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

The Bears are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Bears 27 and Lions 21, with Chicago winning 61% of the time. The moneyline for the Bears is -275 which translates to 73 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Lions are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Lions averaged 20 and the Bears 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at CHI -5.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears as the Vegas line has moved from -3.5 to -6.5. The Bears have a record of 5-7-0 as a favorite. The Lions have a record of 6-6-0 as an underdog. The Bears have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Bears have the ATS edge head to head going 2-1-1 vs the Lions. The average point spread in these games was Lions -4.8 and they won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions4519.221.431%39%20.2 (3 Wins)
Chicago Bears-6.525.826.769%61%17.0 (1 Win)

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New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

The Patriots are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Patriots 28 and Titans 19, with New England being given a 70% chance of winning. The Patriots are -269 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. New England won their lone matchup in recent seasons 35 to 14. The computer would set the spread at NE -9. More of the action seems to be on the Patriots as the Vegas line has moved from +6 to 6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 18-10-0. As an underdog, the Titans are 8-4-0. In their last match-up (NE won by 21) , New England covered the spread. The Patriots were -13.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New England Patriots46.526.527.871%70%35.0 (1 Win)
Tennessee Titans+6.520.018.629%29%14.0 (0 Wins)

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Washington Redskins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Buccaneers. The projected score is Buccaneers 24 and Redskins 23, and Tampa Bay is winning 52% of the sims. The Buccaneers are -155 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 61 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Buccaneers to win. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is TB -1. More of the action seems to be on the Buccaneers with the Vegas line moving from -1 to -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Buccaneers are 4-7-0. As an underdog, the Redskins are 8-7-0. The Redskins are 5-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Buccaneers are 5-6-0 ATS at home since last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins51.524.223.342%47%--
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-3.027.324.558%52%--

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Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The Jets are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Jets 28 and Bills 17, with New York winning 76% of the time. At -303 on the moneyline, the Jets implied proability to win is 75 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Bills based on how the moneyline is moving. The Jets are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games the Jets averaged 28 points per game and the Bills 21. The projection based point spread is NYJ -11. With more action on the Bills, oddsmakers have moved the line from +7 to +6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jets are 4-3-0. As an underdog, the Bills are 8-11-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Jets have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Bills. The average point spread in these games was Bills -3.9 but the Jets won by an average of 7.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills36.515.017.428%24%20.8 (1 Win)
New York Jets-6.521.528.472%76%28.2 (3 Wins)

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Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Chiefs to win the game. The projected score is Chiefs 33 and Cardinals 18, with Kansas City winning 83% of the time. The Chiefs are -1667 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 94 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Chiefs based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is KC -15. More of the action seems to be on the Chiefs with the Vegas line moving from -14 to -16.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 12-7-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 8-8-2. The Cardinals are 3-7-1 ATS on the road since last season. The Chiefs are 3-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Cardinals49.516.518.29%17%--
Kansas City Chiefs-16.533.033.391%83%--

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

The odds favor the Colts, and the sims are solidly on the Colts as well. The projected score is Colts 27 and Jaguars 23, and Indianapolis is winning 58% of simulations. At -147 on the moneyline, the Colts implied proability to win is 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Jaguars are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Jaguars averaged 27 and the Colts 15 ppg. The projection based point spread is IND -3.5. More of the action seems to be on the Colts with the Vegas line moving from -1 to -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Colts are 7-4-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 6-4-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Jaguars have the ATS edge head to head going 4-0-0 vs the Colts. The average point spread in these games was Jaguars -1.6 and they won by an average of 11.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Jacksonville Jaguars46.521.823.442%42%26.8 (3 Wins)
Indianapolis Colts-3.024.727.158%58%15.2 (1 Win)

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Chargers to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Chargers 34 and Raiders 16, and Los Angeles is winning 84% of simulations. The Chargers are -500 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 83 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 5 matchups the Chargers are 3-2. In these games, the Chargers averaged 24 and the Raiders 18 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAC -18. Bettors seem to be favoring the Chargers as the Vegas line has moved from +7.5 to 10. The Chargers have a record of 6-7-1 as a favorite. The Raiders have a record of 4-10-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Chargers are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Raiders. The average point spread in these games was Chargers -0.6 and they won by an average of 6.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Chargers4929.534.280%84%24.0 (3 Wins)
Oakland Raiders+10.019.516.320%15%17.8 (2 Wins)

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Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Packers to win the game. The projected score is Packers 32 and Dolphins 19, and Green Bay is winning 78% of simulations. The Packers are -500 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 83 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Packers to win. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is GB -12. Bettors seem to be favoring the Packers as the Vegas line has moved from -7 to -10. The Packers have a record of 5-5-0 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 6-12-1 as an underdog. The Dolphins are 1-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Packers are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Dolphins47.518.819.320%21%--
Green Bay Packers-10.028.731.580%78%--

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Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams

The odds and our simulations favor the Rams over the Seahawks, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Rams 27 and Seahawks 23, with Los Angeles winning 59% of the time. The moneyline for the Rams is -455 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Rams are 3-2. In these games the Rams averaged 19 points per game and the Seahawks 16. The projection based point spread is LAR -4. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -9.5. The Rams have a record of 10-9-1 as a favorite. The Seahawks have a record of 5-5-1 as an underdog. While they may be 2-3 straight up vs the Rams, the Seahawks have been better against the spread. The Seahawks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Rams. The average point spread in these games was Seahawks -2.5 but the Rams won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Seattle Seahawks5020.222.622%40%16.2 (2 Wins)
Los Angeles Rams-9.529.826.778%59%19.4 (3 Wins)

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Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Eagles to win the game. The projected score is Eagles 25 and Cowboys 20, with Philadelphia winning 62% of the time. At -323 on the moneyline, the Eagles implied proability to win is 76 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Eagles based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Eagles averaged 22 points per game and the Cowboys 14. The computer would set the spread at PHI -5.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Eagles as the Vegas line has moved from -5.5 to -7. The Eagles have a record of 10-9-0 as a favorite. The Cowboys have a record of 7-6-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The Eagles were favored by an average of -0.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys4318.019.627%37%14.2 (2 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-7.025.024.973%62%21.8 (2 Wins)

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Monday, November 12, 2018

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

The odds favor the 49ers, and the sims are solidly on the 49ers as well. The projected score is 49ers 26 and Giants 23, and San Francisco is winning 57% of the sims. The moneyline for the 49ers is -156 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). San Francisco won their lone matchup in recent seasons 31 to 21. The projection based point spread is SF -3. More of the action seems to be on the 49ers with the Vegas line moving from -1.5 to -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the 49ers are 1-7-0. As an underdog, the Giants are 10-11-0. In their last match-up (SF won by 10) San Francisco covered the spread. The Giants were -3 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants4420.522.941%43%21.0 (0 Wins)
San Francisco 49ers-3.023.526.159%57%31.0 (1 Win)

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