NFL Game Picks: Lamar Jackson Gives Baltimore a Shot at Upsetting Kansas City

Thursday, December 06, 2018

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Titans to win the game. The projected score is Titans 24 and Jaguars 18, and Tennessee is winning 63% of simulations. The moneyline for the Titans is -225 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Titans have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Titans averaged 23 points per game and the Jaguars 18. The projection based point spread is TEN -6. More of the action seems to be on the Titans with the Vegas line moving from -3.5 to -4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Titans are 0-2-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 2-2-2. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Titans have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Jaguars. The average point spread in these games was Jaguars -2 but the Titans won by an average of 4.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Jacksonville Jaguars37.516.517.834%36%18.4 (1 Win)
Tennessee Titans-4.521.023.766%63%22.8 (4 Wins)

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Sunday, December 09, 2018

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Bills. The projected score is Bills 22 and Jets 21, and Buffalo is winning 52% of the sims. At -178 on the moneyline, the Bills implied proability to win is 64 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 5 matchups the Jets are 3-2. Both teams have averaged 25 points in these games. The projection based point spread is BUF -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Jets have a record of 3-6-0 as an underdog. While they may be 2-3 straight up in previous matchups, the Bills have been better against the spread. The Bills are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Jets. The average point spread in these games was Jets -1.4 but the Bills won by an average of 0.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Jets38.517.520.738%48%24.6 (3 Wins)
Buffalo Bills-3.521.021.662%52%24.8 (2 Wins)

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New York Giants vs Washington Redskins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Giants to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Giants 22 and Redskins 20, with New York winning 54% of the latest sims. The Giants are -180 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Redskins are 3-2. In these games the Redskins averaged 18 points per game and the Giants 17. The computer would set the spread at NYG -2. With the Giants going from a +1 underdog to a -3.5 favorite, bettors are heavy on them to cover. In their one recent game as a favorite, the Giants pushed. The Giants pushed against the spread in their one game as a favorite in recent seasons. The Redskins have a record of 6-3-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Redskins have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Giants. The Redskins were favored by an average of -0.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants4122.221.763%54%17.4 (2 Wins)
Washington Redskins+3.518.819.937%45%17.8 (3 Wins)

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New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Saints to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Saints 34 and Buccaneers 22, with New Orleans being given a 74% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Saints is -357 which translates to 78 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Buccaneers are 3-2. In these games, the Saints averaged 27 and the Buccaneers 26 ppg. The projection based point spread is NO -12. More of the action seems to be on the Saints as the Vegas line has moved from +7.5 to 8. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 6-3-0. As an underdog, the Buccaneers are 4-3-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Buccaneers have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Saints. The average point spread in these games was Saints -2 and they won by an average of 1.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Saints5632.033.776%74%27.2 (2 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+8.024.021.524%26%25.8 (3 Wins)

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New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

The Patriots are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Patriots 31 and Dolphins 21, with New England being given a 70% chance of winning. At -340 on the moneyline, the Patriots implied probability to win is 77 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Patriots going 4-1. In these games, the Patriots averaged 32 and the Dolphins 18 ppg. The computer would set the spread at NE -10. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening MIA +7.5. The Patriots have a record of 8-4-0 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 3-5-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Patriots are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Dolphins. The average point spread in these games was Patriots -1.3 and they won by an average of 14 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New England Patriots4727.230.775%70%31.8 (4 Wins)
Miami Dolphins+7.519.820.925%29%17.8 (1 Win)

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Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Chiefs 28 and Ravens 23, and Kansas City is winning 60% of the sims. The moneyline for the Chiefs is -303 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is KC -4.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Ravens with the Vegas moving from +8.5 to +6.5. The Chiefs have a record of 5-3-0 as a favorite. The Ravens have a record of 2-0-0 as an underdog. The Ravens are 3-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Chiefs are 3-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens5323.223.228%39%--
Kansas City Chiefs-6.529.827.972%60%--

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Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

The odds and our simulations favor the Texans over the Colts. The projected score is Texans 32 and Colts 26, and Houston is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Texans is -220 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Texans are 3-2. In these games, the Colts averaged 23 and the Texans 22 ppg. The projection based point spread is HOU -5.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Texans as the Vegas line has moved from -4 to -4.5. The Texans have a record of 4-5-0 as a favorite. The Colts have a record of 2-4-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Texans have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Colts. The Texans were favored by an average of -0.2 points in these games but the Colts won by an average of 0.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts49.522.526.234%38%23.2 (2 Wins)
Houston Texans-4.527.031.866%61%22.4 (3 Wins)

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Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Browns are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Browns 26 and Panthers 23, and Cleveland is winning 57% of the sims. The moneyline for the Panthers is -130 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Panthers based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is CLE -3.5. With more action on the Browns side, the line has adjusted from +2.5 to +2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Panthers are 3-5-0. As an underdog, the Browns are 5-4-0. The Panthers are 1-5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Browns are 4-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Panthers4724.523.254%42%--
Cleveland Browns+2.022.526.546%57%--

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Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Packers to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Packers 28 and Falcons 24, and Green Bay is winning 58% of simulations. At -250 on the moneyline, the Packers implied proability to win is 71 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Falcons going 3-0. In these games, the Falcons averaged 37 and the Packers 25 ppg. The computer would set the spread at GB -4. Bettors seem to be favoring the Packers as the Vegas line has moved from -4 to -5.5. The Packers have a record of 2-4-0 as a favorite. The Falcons have a record of 1-2-0 as an underdog. The average spread in these 3 games was a pick 'em (zero points) and the Falcons won by an average of 11.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons5022.224.232%42%37.0 (3 Wins)
Green Bay Packers-5.527.828.068%58%25.3 (0 Wins)

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Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

The Broncos are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Broncos 26 and 49ers 23, with Denver being given a 57% chance of winning. At -220 on the moneyline, the Broncos implied probability to win is 69 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the 49ers since the moneyline is moving that way. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is DEN -3. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening SF +4. The Broncos have a record of 2-3-1 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 3-5-0 as an underdog. The Broncos are 4-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The 49ers are 1-4-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos45.524.826.266%57%--
San Francisco 49ers+4.020.723.334%43%--

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Chargers over the Bengals. The projected score is Chargers 32 and Bengals 19, and Los Angeles is winning 80% of the sims. At -1000 on the moneyline, the Chargers implied proability to win is 91 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Bengals based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAC -13. With more action on the Bengals, oddsmakers have moved the line from +14.5 to +14. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chargers are 4-4-0. As an underdog, the Bengals are 3-4-0. The Bengals are 3-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Chargers are 2-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals47.516.819.313%20%--
Los Angeles Chargers-14.030.732.387%80%--

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Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds favor the Lions, and the sims are solidly on the Lions as well. The projected score is Lions 23 and Cardinals 20, and Detroit is winning 58% of simulations. The moneyline for the Lions is -142 which translates to 59 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Detroit won their lone matchup in recent seasons 35 to 23. The computer would set the spread at DET -3. Bettors seem to be favoring the Lions as the Vegas line has moved from +2 to 3. The Lions have a record of 2-2-0 as a favorite. The Cardinals have a record of 6-3-1 as an underdog.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions40.521.823.157%58%35.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+3.018.719.943%42%23.0 (0 Wins)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

The odds and our simulations favor the Cowboys over the Eagles. The projected score is Cowboys 27 and Eagles 21, and Dallas is winning 62% of simulations. The moneyline for the Cowboys is -190 which translates to 66 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Cowboys are 3-2. In these games, the Eagles averaged 21 and the Cowboys 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DAL -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Cowboys have a record of 2-3-0 as a favorite. In their one recent game as an underdog, the Eagles did not cover the spread. The Eagles did not cover in their one game as a underdog in recent seasons. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Cowboys have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Eagles. The average point spread in these games was Eagles -1.5 and they won by an average of 4.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles4319.821.236%38%21.4 (2 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-3.523.226.964%62%16.8 (3 Wins)

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Oakland Raiders

The Steelers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Steelers 31 and Raiders 20, and Pittsburgh is winning 72% of simulations. At -564 on the moneyline, the Steelers implied probability to win is 85 percent. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is PIT -11.5. With more action on the Raiders side, the line has adjusted from +11 to +10.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Steelers are 3-5-1. As an underdog, the Raiders are 3-7-0. The Steelers are 3-2-1 ATS on the road this season. The Raiders are 2-3-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers51.531.031.083%72%--
Oakland Raiders+10.520.519.617%27%--

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Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

The odds favor the Rams, and the sims are solidly on the Rams as well. The projected score is Rams 29 and Bears 24, with Los Angeles being given a 60% chance of winning. The Rams are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears since the moneyline is moving that way. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAR -5. With more action on the Bears side, the line has adjusted from +4 to +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rams are 5-5-2. As an underdog, the Bears are 1-1-0. The Rams are 3-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Bears are 5-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams51.527.228.859%60%--
Chicago Bears+3.024.323.741%40%--

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Monday, December 10, 2018

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Seahawks to win the game. The projected score is Seahawks 26 and Vikings 20, with Seattle winning 64% of the time. At -175 on the moneyline, the Seahawks implied proability to win is 64 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at SEA -6. With more action on the Vikings, oddsmakers have moved the line from +3.5 to +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Seahawks are 3-1-1. As an underdog, the Vikings are 1-3-1. The Vikings are 2-3-1 ATS on the road this season. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Vikings4521.020.140%35%--
Seattle Seahawks-3.024.026.360%64%--

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