NFL Outlook: Baltimore Ravens Back on Top With Calais Campbell

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They were just behind the Chiefs in terms of wins per simulation (11.5 to 11.9), percent chance to win the AFC (36% to 32%) and winning the Super Bowl (18% to 21%). Calais Campbell takes them to the top of the AFC as he should both improve their already solid run defense while helping the Ravens go from a below average pass rushing team to an above average, and potentially Top 8 squad in terms of sack total. Their odds to win it all are 8/1, 11.1% (#2). They are a good bet to win the Super Bowl (21.4 percent chance). They are also a good bet to win the AFC at 4/1, 20%. Their sim chance is 35.2%. The Ravens are averaging 11.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 8.5 games. At +170 the Ravens are a good value to make the playoffs with a 96% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 0/1, 100%. They win the division in 85.1% of simulations. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

With a 14-2 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 66%). They were very good against the spread going 10-5-1 for (+450 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which makes sense given their strong offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games33.2 (#1)5.6% (#1)6.4 (#2)209 (#29)7.6 (#12)206 (#1)5.6 (#1)0.9 (#3)
On the Road36.5 (#1)6.4% (#1)6.5 (#1)223 (#27)8.2 (#6)198 (#1)5.3 (#1)0.8 (#3)
At Home29.9 (#3)4.8% (#9)6.3 (#5)196 (#32)7.1 (#17)214 (#1)5.8 (#1)1.1 (#9)
Last 4 Games31.2 (#4)5.6% (#5)5.9 (#16)173 (#31)6.8 (#19)200 (#1)5.3 (#5)1.0 (#11)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games17.6 (#3)3.0% (#4)5.7 (#3)224 (#6)6.6 (#4)93 (#5)4.3 (#20)1.6 (#7)
Road Games16.6 (#3)2.6% (#2)5.3 (#2)216 (#5)6.2 (#2)84 (#3)3.9 (#8)1.8 (#8)
Home Games18.6 (#8)3.5% (#11)6.2 (#8)232 (#8)7.0 (#15)101 (#6)4.9 (#29)1.4 (#10)
Last 4 Games15.8 (#4)2.7% (#6)4.6 (#1)163 (#2)5.0 (#1)87 (#4)3.9 (#9)1.5 (#11)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Justin Tucker who was the #3 Kicker. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Justin Tucker993Will LutzMatt Gay
Lamar Jackson981--Dak Prescott
Mark Ingram978Austin EkelerChris Carson
Mark Andrews962Travis KelceGeorge Kittle
Marquise Brown8244Tyrell WilliamsChristian Kirk
Marcus Peters4721Tre FlowersKevin King
Gus Edwards2242DeAndre WashingtonTarik Cohen
Marlon Humphrey206Vonn BellTracy Walker
Donald Payne1982Bobby OkerekeVon Miller
Earl Thomas17119Andrew SendejoRayshawn Jenkins
Baltimore Defense984Pittsburgh DefenseMinnesota Defense