NFL Outlook: Bet on the Atlanta Falcons to Win Less Than 7.5 Games...Projected to Finish Ahead of Lions

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 5 teams with 60/1, 1.6% odds to win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.2% chance is #23 in the league. In simulations, they win the NFC 0.7% of the time and are not a good value at 30/1, 3.2%. The Falcons are averaging 6.9 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 7.5 wins. At +160 the Falcons are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 17.2% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 3.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 43% of their games last season so their 7-9 met expectations. They went 8-8 against the spread (-80 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 MIN31%0-10-10-1
9/14 PHI42%1-01-00-1
9/21 IND33%0-10-11-0
9/28 TEN47%0-10-10-1
10/5 HOU49%0-10-11-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game. They are the #17 ranked team based on yards per play allowed and the #21 ranked team based on TD per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games23.8 (#13)3.7% (#20)6.1 (#4)316 (#2)7.4 (#14)85 (#30)3.8 (#26)1.6 (#23)
On the Road26.6 (#9)4.1% (#14)5.9 (#13)289 (#4)7.3 (#14)87 (#31)3.6 (#29)1.0 (#7)
At Home21.0 (#20)3.4% (#23)6.4 (#4)342 (#1)7.5 (#14)83 (#28)3.9 (#21)2.1 (#28)
Last 4 Games30.2 (#6)4.0% (#17)6.1 (#5)305 (#5)7.2 (#13)118 (#14)4.3 (#15)1.0 (#11)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.9 (#23)4.3% (#21)6.2 (#17)259 (#21)7.7 (#25)111 (#15)4.2 (#16)1.2 (#19)
Road Games24.8 (#19)4.5% (#24)6.6 (#23)276 (#23)8.1 (#29)113 (#18)4.5 (#23)1.2 (#21)
Home Games25.1 (#23)4.1% (#18)5.8 (#15)242 (#15)7.3 (#18)109 (#12)3.9 (#7)1.2 (#16)
Last 4 Games19.0 (#7)3.1% (#12)6.0 (#8)220 (#7)6.7 (#13)118 (#19)5.0 (#26)2.5 (#2)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Julio Jones who was the #5 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Julio Jones1005Cooper KuppDeVante Parker
Matt Ryan9911Kyler MurrayTom Brady
Devonta Freeman9826Melvin GordonRonald Jones
Austin Hooper937Jared CookHunter Henry
Younghoe Koo7525Daniel CarlsonChase McLaughlin
Calvin Ridley6923Robert WoodsTerry McLaurin
Deion Jones6225Nick VigilJayon Brown
De`Vondre Campbell4510Lavonte DavidDarius Leonard
Grady Jarrett4010Calais CampbellJonathan Allen
Brian Hill3756Jaylen SamuelsMalcolm Brown
Atlanta Defense1627Las Vegas DefenseDetroit Defense