NFL Outlook: Bet on the Buffalo Bills to Win More Than 9 Games...Projected to Finish Ahead of Patriots

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 30/1, 3.2% (#11 best). Their 2.2% chance is #6 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the AFC 5.6% of the time and are not a good value at 15/1, 6.2%. The Bills are averaging 9.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 9 games. At +400 the Bills are a good value to make the playoffs with a 77.7% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 54.3% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 51%. They were very good against the spread going 9-6-1 for (+240 profit). More of their games came in under (12) than went over (4). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 NYJ70%1-11-10-2
9/14 NYG71%1-01-00-1
9/21 CIN83%1-00-10-1
9/28 NE60%0-21-11-1
10/5 TEN55%1-01-00-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are an elite scoring defense, which makes sense given their TD per play allowed rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games19.6 (#23)3.5% (#24)5.7 (#24)217 (#26)6.8 (#20)128 (#8)4.4 (#14)1.2 (#11)
On the Road21.5 (#19)4.3% (#12)5.9 (#23)232 (#24)7.4 (#11)123 (#11)4.2 (#19)0.9 (#4)
At Home17.8 (#30)2.6% (#31)5.4 (#24)203 (#31)6.1 (#31)134 (#5)4.6 (#10)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games14.2 (#31)2.1% (#31)4.8 (#30)182 (#27)5.6 (#30)100 (#22)3.8 (#24)1.5 (#22)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games16.2 (#2)2.9% (#2)5.4 (#4)214 (#4)6.2 (#3)103 (#10)4.2 (#18)1.4 (#10)
Road Games15.6 (#2)2.7% (#3)5.7 (#9)250 (#16)6.4 (#3)96 (#8)4.4 (#20)1.5 (#14)
Home Games16.8 (#3)3.1% (#7)5.1 (#1)178 (#1)5.9 (#2)110 (#15)4.2 (#12)1.4 (#10)
Last 4 Games17.8 (#6)2.9% (#10)5.0 (#5)204 (#4)6.2 (#6)100 (#9)3.6 (#5)2.0 (#3)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Devin Singletary who was the #31 Runningback. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Devin Singletary9831Latavius MurrayTevin Coleman
John Brown9418Courtland SuttonStefon Diggs
Josh Allen839Carson WentzKyler Murray
Jordan Poyer6414Jessie BatesKyle Fuller
Tremaine Edmunds4931Roquan SmithMatt Milano
Cole Beasley4635Jamison CrowderCurtis Samuel
Frank Gore3745Matt BreidaTony Pollard
Matt Milano2332Tremaine EdmundsTahir Whitehead
Tre'Davious White2229Joe HadenJanoris Jenkins
Steven Hauschka1823Eddy PineiroDaniel Carlson
Buffalo Defense847LA Rams DefenseNew Orleans Defense