NFL Outlook: Bet on the Cleveland Browns to Win Less Than 8.5 Games...Projected to Finish Ahead of Jets

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 6 teams who have 40/1, 2.4% odds to win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.3% chance is #22 in the league. In simulations, they win the AFC 1.1% of the time and are not a good value at 20/1, 4.8%. The Browns are averaging 7.4 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 8.5 wins. At -110 the Browns are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 27.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 4.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AFC.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 6-10 record last season was very disappointing. Their expected win percentage was 52%. They were not good against the spread going 5-10-1 (-600 loss). They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 TEN52%0-10-11-0
9/15 NYJ60%1-01-00-1
9/21 LAR50%0-10-10-1
9/28 BAL22%1-11-11-1
10/6 SF20%0-10-10-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.9 (#22)4.0% (#16)6.2 (#22)240 (#22)7.1 (#16)118 (#12)4.8 (#4)1.8 (#26)
On the Road19.8 (#22)3.5% (#21)6.5 (#18)247 (#18)7.4 (#12)118 (#12)5.1 (#3)2.0 (#31)
At Home22.1 (#17)4.4% (#12)5.9 (#22)234 (#22)6.9 (#21)118 (#13)4.6 (#11)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games22.2 (#19)4.6% (#12)6.1 (#23)228 (#21)7.2 (#14)105 (#19)4.7 (#10)2.0 (#25)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.6 (#20)4.5% (#24)6.2 (#22)234 (#7)7.3 (#17)145 (#30)5.0 (#30)1.2 (#19)
Road Games25.1 (#21)4.9% (#26)6.3 (#18)213 (#4)7.6 (#25)160 (#32)5.2 (#28)1.0 (#26)
Home Games24.0 (#19)4.2% (#19)6.1 (#22)255 (#20)7.1 (#16)130 (#26)4.8 (#28)1.5 (#6)
Last 4 Games30.2 (#28)5.2% (#25)6.6 (#31)234 (#11)7.6 (#21)207 (#32)5.7 (#31)1.0 (#20)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Nick Chubb who was the #6 Runningback. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Nick Chubb1006Dalvin CookAustin Ekeler
Jarvis Landry9914Allen RobinsonTyler Lockett
Odell Beckham9831DK MetcalfEmmanuel Sanders
Kareem Hunt9752Rashaad PennyNyheim Hines
Joe Schobert921--Jordan Hicks
Baker Mayfield8220Drew BreesRyan Tannehill
Austin Seibert5218Randy BullockKa'imi Fairbairn
Myles Garrett2244Fletcher CoxIfeadi Odenigbo
David Njoku2276Stephen CarlsonTroy Fumagalli
Denzel Ward1470Marshon LattimoreMike Hilton
Cleveland Defense6122Carolina DefenseHouston Defense