NFL Outlook: Bet on the Green Bay Packers to Win Less Than 10 Games...Projected to Finish Ahead of Rams

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the Super Bowl. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.9% chance is #16 in the league. In simulations, they win the NFC 3.1% of the time and are not a good value at 10/1, 9.1%. The Packers are averaging 8.5 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 10 wins. At -110 the Packers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 48.4% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 0/1, 100%. They win the division in 25.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NFC.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 13-3 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was just 62%. They were very good against the spread going 10-6 for (+340 profit). More of their games came in under (10) than went over (6). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/4 CHI42%2-02-00-2
9/14 MIN48%2-02-00-2
9/21 DEN58%1-01-01-0
9/25 PHI55%0-10-11-0
10/5 DAL35%1-01-01-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an average team in points per game. Offensively, they are the #19 ranked team in yards per play. They are the #11 ranked team in offensive TD rate [(PassTD + RushTD) / (Pass Att + Rush Att)]. They are an above average scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games23.5 (#15)4.5% (#11)5.9 (#19)251 (#19)7.0 (#17)112 (#15)4.4 (#16)0.8 (#2)
On the Road21.4 (#20)3.8% (#19)5.3 (#26)226 (#25)6.1 (#30)104 (#20)4.1 (#21)0.6 (#2)
At Home25.6 (#6)5.2% (#4)6.6 (#6)276 (#7)8.0 (#6)121 (#11)4.7 (#8)1.0 (#6)
Last 4 Games21.8 (#21)3.3% (#22)5.6 (#15)234 (#19)6.0 (#28)144 (#6)5.1 (#7)1.2 (#17)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games19.6 (#9)3.6% (#9)6.2 (#20)251 (#15)7.4 (#20)120 (#23)4.7 (#24)1.6 (#7)
Road Games19.6 (#9)3.5% (#8)6.3 (#12)251 (#18)7.4 (#19)106 (#15)4.6 (#24)1.2 (#21)
Home Games19.5 (#9)3.6% (#14)6.1 (#23)251 (#18)7.3 (#19)134 (#28)4.7 (#27)1.9 (#4)
Last 4 Games14.5 (#2)2.5% (#3)5.1 (#4)192 (#3)5.4 (#2)111 (#16)4.6 (#21)1.5 (#11)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Davante Adams who was the #29 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Davante Adams10029Tyreek HillDK Metcalf
Aaron Jones1003Derrick HenryEzekiel Elliott
Aaron Rodgers997Patrick MahomesCarson Wentz
Blake Martinez873Jordan HicksCory Littleton
Jamaal Williams7836Duke JohnsonDavid Johnson
Jimmy Graham4722Tyler EifertEric Ebron
Mason Crosby4316Robbie GouldRandy Bullock
Preston Smith2655Whitney MercilusMark Barron
Marquez Valdes-Scantling2576Preston WilliamsTajae Sharpe
Kevin King2122Marcus PetersTaylor Rapp
Green Bay Defense7314NY Jets DefenseChicago Defense