NFL Outlook: Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to Win the Super Bowl at 5/1, 16.7%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Patriots

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Oddsmakers have the Chiefs as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even with the juice, the Chiefs are a good betting value. Their 20.1% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the AFC at 5/2, 28.6%. Their sim chance is 34.8%. The Chiefs are averaging 11.9 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 10.5 games. At -450 the Chiefs are a good value to make the playoffs with a 96.4% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 0/1, 100%. They win the division in 89.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

With a 12-4 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 65%). They were very good against the spread going 10-5-1 for (+450 profit). They went over 8 times and came in under 8 times.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which makes sense given their strong offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games28.2 (#5)4.8% (#5)6.6 (#7)293 (#4)8.1 (#4)98 (#23)4.2 (#20)0.9 (#3)
On the Road29.6 (#3)4.7% (#10)6.3 (#2)311 (#1)8.1 (#7)94 (#26)3.6 (#30)1.0 (#7)
At Home26.8 (#5)5.0% (#5)6.9 (#12)275 (#8)8.1 (#5)102 (#20)4.9 (#6)0.9 (#2)
Last 4 Games25.8 (#13)4.2% (#14)6.2 (#17)262 (#14)7.9 (#7)109 (#18)4.1 (#21)1.0 (#11)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games19.2 (#7)3.5% (#8)5.9 (#19)243 (#11)6.7 (#6)128 (#26)4.9 (#29)1.4 (#10)
Road Games17.9 (#5)3.3% (#5)6.3 (#16)243 (#12)6.9 (#10)122 (#25)5.4 (#30)1.6 (#10)
Home Games20.6 (#14)3.7% (#15)5.6 (#18)242 (#16)6.4 (#6)134 (#28)4.5 (#21)1.2 (#16)
Last 4 Games10.8 (#1)2.1% (#2)5.0 (#3)212 (#6)5.4 (#3)89 (#6)4.2 (#14)1.0 (#20)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Patrick Mahomes who was the #6 Quarterback. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Patrick Mahomes1006Jameis WinstonAaron Rodgers
Damien Williams8134James ConnerDuke Johnson
Tyreek Hill10028Marvin JonesDavante Adams
Travis Kelce1001--Mark Andrews
Harrison Butker981--Will Lutz
Sammy Watkins8052Mecole HardmanWill Fuller
Tyrann Mathieu2419Stephon GilmoreTre Flowers
Anthony Hitchens1852A.J. KleinDevon Kennard
Mecole Hardman4151James WashingtonSammy Watkins
Frank Clark3523Robert QuinnShelby Harris
Kansas City Defense639New Orleans DefenseTampa Bay Defense