NFL Outlook: Bet on the Los Angeles Rams to Win Less Than 9 Games...Projected to Finish Ahead of Bears

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 40/1, 2.4% (#15 best). Their 1.3% chance is #13 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the NFC 3.8% of the time and are not a good value at 20/1, 4.8%. The Rams are averaging 8.3 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 9 wins. At -300 the Rams are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 45.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 12.5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 59% of their games last season so their 9-7 met expectations. They were very good against the spread going 10-5-1 for (+450 profit). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 CAR69%1-01-01-0
9/14 NO39%1-01-00-1
9/21 CLE49%1-01-00-1
9/28 TB59%0-10-11-0
10/2 SEA45%1-12-01-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are an average team in points allowed. Offensively, they are the #13 ranked team in yards per play allowed. They are the #13 ranked defense in opponents' TD rate (passing and rushing TDs per offensive play).

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.6 (#11)4.1% (#13)6.0 (#9)292 (#5)7.4 (#13)94 (#26)3.7 (#27)1.5 (#22)
On the Road26.8 (#8)3.8% (#17)5.8 (#6)303 (#3)6.9 (#19)93 (#28)3.7 (#27)1.5 (#23)
At Home22.5 (#15)4.3% (#13)6.2 (#15)281 (#6)7.9 (#7)95 (#24)3.8 (#24)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games27.8 (#8)5.3% (#7)5.7 (#12)306 (#3)7.0 (#15)92 (#28)3.5 (#31)1.0 (#11)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games22.8 (#17)3.8% (#13)5.7 (#13)246 (#12)7.0 (#12)113 (#19)4.1 (#10)1.5 (#9)
Road Games22.8 (#16)4.0% (#18)5.7 (#7)224 (#6)7.1 (#15)116 (#21)4.2 (#15)1.6 (#10)
Home Games22.8 (#15)3.6% (#13)5.7 (#19)267 (#26)6.9 (#13)110 (#15)4.0 (#10)1.4 (#10)
Last 4 Games28.5 (#24)4.7% (#20)6.8 (#22)258 (#18)8.0 (#26)140 (#26)5.3 (#29)2.0 (#3)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Todd Gurley who was the #12 Runningback. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Todd Gurley10012Joe MixonLeonard Fournette
Cooper Kupp994Kenny GolladayJulio Jones
Robert Woods9822DJ MooreCalvin Ridley
Cory Littleton874Blake MartinezJaylon Smith
Greg Zuerlein859Josh LamboJoey Slye
Jared Goff8315Kirk CousinsDerek Carr
Aaron Donald8019Brandon GrahamJosh Allen
Brandin Cooks7361Alshon JefferyAnthony Miller
Tyler Higbee729Hunter HenryDallas Goedert
Dante Fowler3938Bud DupreeThomas Davis
LA Rams Defense756Minnesota DefenseBuffalo Defense