NFL Outlook: Bet on the New England Patriots to Win the AFC at 7/1, 12.5%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Bills

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 14/1, 6.7% (#6). Their simulation based win percentage (6.3%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the AFC at 7/1, 12.5%. Their sim chance is 13.7%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 11 games. The Patriots are averaging 10.9 wins per sim. At -800 the Patriots are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 88% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 0/1, 100%. They win the division in 70.6% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 76% of their games last season so their 12-4 met expectations. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Pittsburgh Steelers.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games26.2 (#7)3.9% (#18)5.5 (#17)260 (#9)6.7 (#23)107 (#18)3.8 (#25)0.9 (#3)
On the Road27.2 (#6)4.0% (#15)5.2 (#21)248 (#16)6.1 (#29)109 (#18)4.0 (#22)0.9 (#4)
At Home25.2 (#8)3.8% (#19)5.7 (#14)272 (#9)7.4 (#15)104 (#19)3.7 (#28)1.0 (#6)
Last 4 Games24.5 (#16)4.1% (#15)5.6 (#22)206 (#26)6.4 (#24)137 (#7)4.7 (#8)1.0 (#11)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games14.1 (#1)2.2% (#1)5.3 (#1)201 (#2)6.0 (#2)96 (#6)4.2 (#14)2.2 (#2)
Road Games13.1 (#1)2.6% (#1)5.2 (#1)180 (#1)5.5 (#1)114 (#19)4.7 (#25)3.0 (#1)
Home Games15.0 (#1)1.8% (#1)5.4 (#4)222 (#6)6.5 (#7)77 (#1)3.6 (#3)1.5 (#6)
Last 4 Games20.0 (#11)2.8% (#7)5.6 (#10)246 (#13)7.0 (#15)98 (#8)3.7 (#6)1.8 (#7)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Julian Edelman who was the #11 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Julian Edelman9911A.J. BrownKeenan Allen
Tom Brady9612Matt RyanJimmy Garoppolo
James White9529Adrian PetersonLatavius Murray
Sony Michel9124Carlos HydeMelvin Gordon
Mohamed Sanu6271John RossWillie Snead
Jamie Collins5227Jayon BrownRashaan Evans
Nick Folk2731Mike BadgleyKai Forbath
Rex Burkhead2748Kerryon JohnsonBoston Scott
Phillip Dorsett2264Corey DavisJuJu Smith-Schuster
Kyle Van Noy2163Haason ReddickDont`a Hightower
New England Defense1001--San Francisco Defense