NFL Outlook: Bet on the New Orleans Saints to Win the Super Bowl at 10/1, 9.1%...Projected to Finish Ahead of 49ers

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 10/1, 9.1% (#4). They win the Super Bowl in 15% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. They are also a good bet to win the NFC at 5/1, 16.7%. Their sim chance is 29.9%. The Saints are averaging 11.6 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 10.5 games. At -330 the Saints are a good value to make the playoffs with a 95.5% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 0/1, 100%. They win the division in 91.1% of simulations. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NFC.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

With a 13-3 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 62%). They were very good against the spread going 11-5 for (+550 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a relatively low yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games28.6 (#3)4.9% (#4)6.3 (#9)277 (#7)7.6 (#11)109 (#16)4.3 (#18)0.5 (#1)
On the Road28.9 (#4)4.8% (#6)5.6 (#24)235 (#23)6.9 (#20)103 (#21)3.9 (#23)0.2 (#1)
At Home28.4 (#4)5.0% (#6)6.9 (#2)319 (#4)8.3 (#4)115 (#16)4.7 (#9)0.8 (#1)
Last 4 Games40.0 (#1)7.7% (#1)6.4 (#8)306 (#4)8.6 (#4)112 (#17)3.8 (#25)0.2 (#1)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games21.3 (#13)4.1% (#18)6.0 (#12)263 (#22)7.0 (#11)91 (#4)4.2 (#17)1.4 (#10)
Road Games19.8 (#10)3.6% (#10)5.8 (#17)287 (#26)6.8 (#6)79 (#2)3.8 (#7)2.0 (#4)
Home Games22.9 (#16)4.7% (#26)6.1 (#13)238 (#11)7.2 (#17)104 (#8)4.6 (#26)0.9 (#24)
Last 4 Games23.2 (#15)5.2% (#24)6.6 (#20)280 (#25)7.7 (#23)100 (#9)4.7 (#24)1.2 (#15)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Michael Thomas who was the #1 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Michael Thomas1001--Chris Godwin
Alvin Kamara10016Miles SandersMarlon Mack
Drew Brees10019Ryan FitzpatrickBaker Mayfield
Will Lutz1002Harrison ButkerJustin Tucker
Jared Cook946Zach ErtzAustin Hooper
Latavius Murray8630James WhiteDevin Singletary
Cameron Jordan746Carlos DunlapYannick Ngakoue
Demario Davis748Fred WarnerLavonte David
Vonn Bell615Jamal AdamsMarlon Humphrey
Marshon Lattimore1869Darryl RobertsDenzel Ward
New Orleans Defense898Buffalo DefenseKansas City Defense