NFL Outlook: Bet on the San Francisco 49ers to Win the Super Bowl at 10/1, 9.1%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Vikings

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 10/1, 9.1% (#3). Even with the juice, the 49ers are a good betting value. Their 16.4% chance to win the Super Bowl (based on simulations) is #3 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the NFC at 9/2, 18.2%. Their sim chance is 31.7%. The 49ers are averaging 11.1 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 10.5 games. At +180 the 49ers are a good value to make the playoffs with a 93% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 0/1, 100%. They win the division in 68.9% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

With a 13-3 record they managed to beat the high expectations that oddsmakers had of them (expected win percentage = 63%). They were very good against the spread going 9-6-1 for (+240 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 TB62%1-01-00-1
9/14 CIN87%1-01-01-0
9/21 PIT73%1-00-10-1
10/6 CLE80%1-01-00-1
10/12 LAR62%2-01-11-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game. They are the #5 ranked team based on yards per play and the #3 ranked team based on offensive TD per play. They are an elite scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games29.9 (#2)5.2% (#3)6.5 (#5)252 (#17)8.4 (#2)144 (#2)4.6 (#9)1.4 (#19)
On the Road27.5 (#5)4.7% (#7)6.6 (#5)253 (#13)9.1 (#1)145 (#3)4.4 (#14)1.0 (#7)
At Home32.4 (#1)5.7% (#3)6.4 (#8)251 (#18)7.9 (#8)143 (#4)4.9 (#7)1.9 (#25)
Last 4 Games32.5 (#2)6.5% (#3)7.6 (#9)279 (#11)9.4 (#2)132 (#9)5.4 (#3)1.2 (#17)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games19.4 (#8)3.7% (#12)5.3 (#2)192 (#1)5.9 (#1)113 (#17)4.5 (#23)1.7 (#6)
Road Games19.1 (#8)4.0% (#16)5.6 (#3)198 (#2)6.6 (#4)116 (#22)4.4 (#21)1.1 (#25)
Home Games19.6 (#11)3.4% (#10)5.0 (#3)186 (#2)5.4 (#1)109 (#12)4.6 (#24)2.2 (#2)
Last 4 Games31.8 (#30)6.0% (#30)5.7 (#19)279 (#23)6.7 (#11)100 (#11)4.0 (#12)0.8 (#25)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Jimmy Garoppolo who was the #13 Quarterback. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Jimmy Garoppolo9513Tom BradyKirk Cousins
Raheem Mostert8720Phillip LindsayLe`Veon Bell
George Kittle1003Mark AndrewsDarren Waller
Deebo Samuel8626Tyler BoydMarvin Jones
Emmanuel Sanders9632Odell BeckhamDarius Slayton
Robbie Gould8715Jason SandersMason Crosby
Tevin Coleman8032Devin SingletaryJames Conner
Fred Warner717Bobby WagnerDemario Davis
Nick Bosa9114Justin HoustonSheldon Richardson
Kwon Alexander12117Kamalei CorreaUchenna Nwosu
San Francisco Defense972New England DefensePittsburgh Defense