NFL Outlook: Chicago Bears Have a 0.7% Chance to Win the Super Bowl...Projected to Finish Ahead of Cardinals

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 6 teams who have 40/1, 2.4% odds to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.7% chance is #17 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the NFC 2.4% of the time and are not a good value at 20/1, 4.8%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 8.5 games. The Bears are averaging 8.2 wins per sim. At -120 the Bears are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 43.1% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 20.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers expected them to win 8.8 based on their money line game odds. Their 8-8 record last season failed to meet expectations. They were not good against the spread going 4-12 (-920 loss). More of their games came in under (10) than went over (6). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/4 GB58%0-20-20-2
9/14 DEN46%1-00-10-1
9/22 WAS65%1-01-01-0
9/28 MIN49%2-01-11-1
10/5 LV62%0-10-11-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are an elite scoring defense. They are the #8 ranked team based on yards per play allowed and the #7 ranked team based on TD per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games17.5 (#29)2.9% (#28)5.2 (#29)223 (#25)6.2 (#32)91 (#27)3.7 (#29)1.2 (#11)
On the Road18.4 (#26)3.1% (#24)5.3 (#28)223 (#26)6.3 (#27)95 (#24)3.9 (#25)1.2 (#15)
At Home16.6 (#32)2.6% (#32)5.0 (#28)224 (#26)6.0 (#32)87 (#25)3.5 (#30)1.1 (#9)
Last 4 Games17.0 (#28)2.2% (#30)5.3 (#19)236 (#17)6.1 (#27)126 (#11)4.3 (#14)1.5 (#22)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games18.6 (#4)3.4% (#7)5.5 (#8)237 (#8)6.6 (#5)102 (#9)3.9 (#6)1.2 (#22)
Road Games19.0 (#6)3.2% (#4)5.6 (#10)234 (#8)6.8 (#7)120 (#24)4.2 (#16)1.8 (#8)
Home Games18.2 (#7)3.5% (#12)5.4 (#6)240 (#14)6.5 (#8)84 (#4)3.6 (#4)0.6 (#31)
Last 4 Games22.5 (#13)4.2% (#16)5.8 (#10)228 (#10)6.7 (#12)116 (#18)4.6 (#20)0.8 (#25)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Allen Robinson who was the #13 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Allen Robinson9913Keenan AllenJarvis Landry
David Montgomery9722Le`Veon BellCarlos Hyde
Tarik Cohen7343Gus EdwardsMatt Breida
Khalil Mack6357Mark BarronDamien Wilson
Anthony Miller5762Brandin CooksCorey Davis
Roquan Smith5230Cole HolcombTremaine Edmunds
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix4126Kevin ByardAdrian Amos
Kyle Fuller3115Jordan PoyerJustin Simmons
Mitchell Trubisky2925Jacoby BrissettAndy Dalton
Danny Trevathan2265Dont`a HightowerDrue Tranquill
Chicago Defense7715Green Bay DefenseIndianapolis Defense