NFL Outlook: Houston Texans Chances This Year Plummet With Hopkins Traded

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Perhaps things will work out in the coming draft and coming years but for now adding David Johnson is a -.2 subtraction on their win total projection and moving DeAndre Hopkins is a -0.6 subtraction. The Texans are not contenders to win the Super Bowl at 80/1, 1.2%. Their 0.5% chance is #19 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the AFC 1.5% of the time and are not a good value at 40/1, 2.4%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 8 games. The Texans are averaging 7.7 wins per sim. At +110 the Texans are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 35.4% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 0/1, 100%. They win the division in 17.9% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 10-6 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 8.1-7.9. They went 7-8-1 against the spread (-180 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 NO26%0-11-01-0
9/14 JAC72%2-01-10-2
9/21 LAC40%1-01-00-1
9/28 CAR71%0-10-10-1
10/5 ATL51%1-01-01-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games23.6 (#14)4.5% (#10)6.3 (#12)255 (#14)7.6 (#10)126 (#9)4.6 (#8)1.4 (#18)
On the Road23.6 (#13)4.6% (#11)6.4 (#12)250 (#15)7.8 (#9)132 (#8)4.8 (#7)1.8 (#28)
At Home23.6 (#13)4.5% (#11)6.2 (#10)260 (#15)7.5 (#13)119 (#12)4.5 (#14)1.0 (#6)
Last 4 Games21.2 (#22)3.6% (#19)5.5 (#21)236 (#16)6.5 (#22)113 (#16)4.2 (#18)2.0 (#25)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.1 (#19)4.6% (#26)6.5 (#28)281 (#29)7.7 (#24)122 (#25)4.8 (#27)1.4 (#15)
Road Games23.6 (#17)4.4% (#22)6.8 (#32)306 (#30)7.6 (#24)118 (#23)5.4 (#29)1.9 (#6)
Home Games24.5 (#22)4.7% (#25)6.2 (#20)256 (#21)7.8 (#24)125 (#23)4.4 (#19)0.9 (#24)
Last 4 Games28.5 (#24)5.6% (#29)7.1 (#30)286 (#27)8.6 (#31)151 (#28)5.3 (#28)1.8 (#7)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by DeAndre Hopkins who was the #8 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
DeAndre Hopkins1008Amari CooperMike Evans
Deshaun Watson994Russell WilsonJameis Winston
Carlos Hyde8723David MontgomerySony Michel
Will Fuller8153Sammy WatkinsSterling Shepard
Duke Johnson7035Damien WilliamsJamaal Williams
Zach Cunningham6212Darius LeonardK.J. Wright
Ka'imi Fairbairn5019Austin SeibertJake Elliott
Darren Fells4313Jason WittenKyle Rudolph
Kenny Stills3958Danny AmendolaT.Y. Hilton
J.J. Watt2173Johnathan HankinsLeonard Williams
Houston Defense4823Cleveland DefenseWashington Defense