NFL Outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars Have a 0% Chance to Win the Super Bowl...Projected to Finish Ahead of Bengals

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Jaguars are not contenders to win the Super Bowl at 300/1, 0.3%. They are one of 2 teams with these odds (#31 in the league). They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. They are not a good value to win the AFC either at 150/1, 0.7%. The Jaguars are averaging 4.6 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 4.5 wins. At +130 the Jaguars are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 2.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #15 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 6-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 6.7-9.3. They were not good against the spread going 7-9 (-290 loss). They went over 8 times and came in under 7 times. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 KC9%0-10-11-0
9/14 HOU28%0-21-10-2
9/18 TEN27%1-11-11-1
9/28 DEN26%1-01-01-0
10/5 CAR32%0-10-11-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game and a below average offensive TD per play rate. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games18.8 (#26)2.8% (#30)5.9 (#23)251 (#18)6.8 (#19)107 (#17)4.4 (#15)1.2 (#13)
On the Road19.6 (#23)2.7% (#26)6.0 (#11)252 (#14)6.8 (#21)134 (#6)5.0 (#5)0.9 (#4)
At Home17.9 (#29)2.8% (#29)5.7 (#25)251 (#17)6.9 (#20)79 (#30)3.7 (#27)1.6 (#23)
Last 4 Games20.0 (#24)3.0% (#26)5.2 (#27)214 (#25)6.2 (#26)87 (#32)3.7 (#27)0.5 (#2)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games24.8 (#21)4.7% (#27)6.6 (#26)256 (#16)7.9 (#27)139 (#28)5.1 (#31)1.2 (#22)
Road Games25.4 (#23)4.9% (#27)6.7 (#27)247 (#14)7.5 (#22)157 (#31)5.7 (#31)1.4 (#16)
Home Games24.2 (#21)4.5% (#21)6.6 (#24)264 (#23)8.3 (#29)121 (#22)4.5 (#20)1.0 (#21)
Last 4 Games26.2 (#20)4.8% (#21)7.0 (#29)288 (#28)8.7 (#32)148 (#27)5.1 (#27)1.0 (#20)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Leonard Fournette who was the #13 Runningback. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Leonard Fournette9913Todd GurleyJosh Jacobs
D.J. Chark9416Tyler LockettCourtland Sutton
Yannick Ngakoue657Cameron JordanJoey Bosa
Calais Campbell629Joey BosaGrady Jarrett
Dede Westbrook6249Zach PascalJames Washington
Josh Lambo518Matt PraterGreg Zuerlein
Ronnie Harrison3243Jaire AlexanderJabrill Peppers
Nick Foles2542Matt MooreMatt Schaub
Gardner Minshew II2422Ryan TannehillDaniel Jones
Josh Allen1820Aaron DonaldTrey Flowers
Jacksonville Defense5319Seattle DefenseDallas Defense