NFL Outlook: Los Angeles Chargers Have a 0.4% Chance to Win the Super Bowl...Projected to Finish Ahead of Broncos

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 6 teams who have 40/1, 2.4% odds to win the Super Bowl. They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.4% chance is #20 in the league. In simulations, they win the AFC 1.2% of the time and are not a good value at 20/1, 4.8%. The Chargers are averaging 8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 7.5 games. At -190 the Chargers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 42.4% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 7.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 5-11 record last season was very disappointing. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 8.8-7.2. They were not good against the spread going 4-9-3 (-590 loss). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 IND55%1-00-0-11-0
9/14 DET47%0-10-10-1
9/21 HOU59%0-10-10-1
9/28 MIA69%1-01-00-1
10/5 DEN58%0-20-21-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game, despite having a much better yards per play rank. They are an above average scoring defense, which make sense given their strong yards per play allowed rank.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games21.1 (#21)3.7% (#19)6.3 (#11)290 (#6)7.8 (#9)91 (#28)4.0 (#23)1.9 (#29)
On the Road23.4 (#15)4.7% (#9)6.5 (#10)279 (#6)8.4 (#4)107 (#19)4.2 (#20)1.4 (#19)
At Home18.8 (#25)2.9% (#28)6.1 (#12)302 (#5)7.3 (#16)75 (#31)3.7 (#25)2.5 (#30)
Last 4 Games23.2 (#17)5.0% (#8)6.6 (#13)302 (#7)8.0 (#6)96 (#25)4.3 (#16)2.2 (#28)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games21.6 (#14)4.0% (#17)5.8 (#5)212 (#3)7.3 (#18)113 (#18)4.2 (#15)0.9 (#32)
Road Games19.0 (#6)3.4% (#7)5.7 (#4)212 (#3)7.0 (#13)105 (#12)4.1 (#12)1.0 (#26)
Home Games24.1 (#20)4.7% (#24)6.0 (#7)212 (#4)7.6 (#22)121 (#21)4.3 (#14)0.8 (#28)
Last 4 Games26.0 (#19)4.3% (#17)5.8 (#7)211 (#5)7.1 (#17)122 (#21)4.3 (#15)0.5 (#28)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Austin Ekeler who was the #7 Runningback. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Austin Ekeler1007Nick ChubbMark Ingram
Keenan Allen10012Julian EdelmanAllen Robinson
Melvin Gordon10025Sony MichelDevonta Freeman
Hunter Henry978Austin HooperTyler Higbee
Joey Bosa848Yannick NgakoueCalais Campbell
Philip Rivers8117Derek CarrRyan Fitzpatrick
Mike Williams7937Curtis SamuelRobby Anderson
Melvin Ingram4717Matt IoannidisBrandon Graham
Mike Badgley4530Aldrick RosasNick Folk
Derwin James38203Blessuan AustinTrumaine Johnson
LA Chargers Defense3725Washington DefenseLas Vegas Defense