NFL Outlook: The Denver Broncos are a Good Bet to Make the Playoffs at +400...Projected to Finish Ahead of Texans

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 60/1, 1.6% (#22 best). Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.6% chance is #18 in the league. In simulations, they win the AFC 1.4% of the time and are not a good value at 25/1, 3.8%. The Broncos are averaging 7.8 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 7.5 games. At +400 the Broncos are a good value to make the playoffs with a 35.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on last season's game odds they 'should have had' 6.5 wins. Their 7-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). More of their games came in under (9) than went over (7). The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 LV52%1-10-20-2
9/14 CHI53%0-11-00-1
9/21 GB41%0-10-11-0
9/28 JAC74%0-10-11-0
10/5 LAC41%2-02-01-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a very poor scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are an above average scoring defense, which makes sense given their TD per play allowed rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games17.6 (#28)3.0% (#27)5.5 (#28)213 (#28)6.7 (#21)104 (#20)4.1 (#21)1.0 (#6)
On the Road16.5 (#28)2.6% (#29)5.7 (#27)214 (#28)7.0 (#16)112 (#14)4.2 (#18)1.1 (#10)
At Home18.8 (#25)3.3% (#24)5.4 (#30)211 (#29)6.5 (#28)95 (#23)3.9 (#22)0.9 (#2)
Last 4 Games21.0 (#23)3.5% (#20)5.4 (#26)223 (#23)6.9 (#18)90 (#30)3.5 (#30)0.8 (#6)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games19.8 (#10)2.9% (#3)5.8 (#11)239 (#9)7.1 (#14)111 (#16)4.2 (#13)1.1 (#25)
Road Games21.6 (#14)3.7% (#14)6.0 (#13)255 (#19)7.5 (#23)106 (#14)4.0 (#10)1.4 (#16)
Home Games17.9 (#6)2.1% (#2)5.7 (#12)222 (#7)6.7 (#12)117 (#19)4.3 (#16)0.8 (#28)
Last 4 Games19.8 (#9)2.9% (#8)6.4 (#21)285 (#26)7.4 (#18)105 (#12)4.7 (#23)1.2 (#15)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by Courtland Sutton who was the #17 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Courtland Sutton9917D.J. CharkJohn Brown
Phillip Lindsay9919Kenyan DrakeRaheem Mostert
Royce Freeman5840Peyton BarberDeAndre Washington
Noah Fant5416Greg OlsenJonnu Smith
Justin Simmons4816Kyle FullerMalcolm Jenkins
Todd Davis4418Eric KendricksT.J. Watt
Von Miller2783Donald PayneTerrell Suggs
Brandon McManus2011Joey SlyeChris Boswell
Drew Lock1537Taysom HillJeff Driskel
A.J. Johnson1140Thomas DavisAnthony Barr
Denver Defense6217Indianapolis DefenseSeattle Defense