NFL Outlook: The Miami Dolphins are a Good Bet to Make the Playoffs at +1200...Projected to Finish Ahead of Jaguars

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 5 teams who have 60/1, 1.6% odds to win the Super Bowl. They win the Super Bowl in less than 0.1% of simulations. They are not a good value to win the AFC either at 30/1, 3.2%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 6 games. The Dolphins are averaging 5.8 wins per sim. At +1200 the Dolphins are a good value to make the playoffs with a 8.5% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/0, 0%. They win the division in 2.6% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AFC.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NFL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy football and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 5-11 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 3.5-12.5. They were solid against the spread going 9-7 for (+130 profit). They went over 9 times and came in under 7 times. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/7 BAL11%0-10-11-0
9/14 NE30%1-11-11-1
9/21 DAL24%0-10-10-1
9/28 LAC30%0-10-10-1
10/12 WAS54%0-11-00-1

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game and a below average defensive TD rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games19.1 (#25)3.3% (#25)5.5 (#27)257 (#11)6.7 (#24)72 (#32)3.3 (#31)1.6 (#25)
On the Road18.6 (#25)2.6% (#30)5.4 (#25)244 (#21)6.4 (#26)89 (#30)3.7 (#26)1.6 (#25)
At Home19.6 (#23)4.1% (#16)5.6 (#26)271 (#10)7.0 (#19)56 (#32)2.8 (#32)1.6 (#23)
Last 4 Games26.5 (#11)3.2% (#23)6.0 (#6)321 (#2)7.4 (#10)101 (#21)3.8 (#26)0.8 (#6)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games30.9 (#32)5.2% (#31)6.3 (#30)272 (#24)8.0 (#29)136 (#27)4.5 (#22)1.0 (#28)
Road Games28.0 (#29)5.0% (#28)6.3 (#26)251 (#17)7.7 (#26)144 (#29)4.8 (#27)1.5 (#14)
Home Games33.8 (#32)5.5% (#32)6.3 (#30)294 (#30)8.3 (#28)127 (#24)4.1 (#11)0.5 (#32)
Last 4 Games29.2 (#27)5.2% (#26)6.0 (#23)293 (#29)7.8 (#25)111 (#15)3.8 (#8)1.8 (#7)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team this season led by DeVante Parker who was the #6 Wide Receiver. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the position rankings. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
DeVante Parker986Julio JonesAmari Cooper
Mike Gesicki5511Dallas GoedertJason Witten
Jerome Baker5514K.J. WrightDevin White
Patrick Laird5265Jalen RichardJeff Wilson
Ryan Fitzpatrick5118Philip RiversDrew Brees
Christian Wilkins2952Ed OliverClelin Ferrell
Kalen Ballage2573Giovani BernardWayne Gallman
Eric Rowe1634Anthony HarrisXavier Woods
Reshad Jones14221Cam SuttonD.J. Reed
Nik Needham1266Shaquill GriffinBrian Poole
Miami Defense532Arizona Defense--