NFL Outlook: The New York Jets are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Jaguars and Behind the Titans in the AFC

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Jets are not contenders to win the Super Bowl at 100/1, 1%. They are one of 8 teams with these odds (#23 in the league). They are not a good bet to win the Super Bowl. Their 0.3% chance is #22 in the league. In simulations, they win the AFC 0.7% of the time and are not a good value at 40/1, 2.4%. Our projection is leaning on them to win under 7.5 games. The Jets are averaging 7.3 wins per sim. At +300 the Jets are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 20.3% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 6/1, 14.3%. They win the division in 9.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AFC.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers had low expectations for them last season (expected win percentage = 37%) and they failed to live up to even these low expectations going 4-12. They were not good against the spread going 5-10-1 (-600 loss). They went over 10 times and came in under 6 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Buffalo Bills. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
9/8 BUF62%1-11-12-0
9/16 CLE40%0-10-10-1
9/22 NE22%0-20-20-2
10/6 PHI28%0-00-00-0
10/13 DAL49%0-00-00-0

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STATS WITH LEAGUE RANKINGS

They are a below average scoring team based on points per game and below average in yards per play. They are a very poor scoring defense based on points per game, despite having a much better defensive TD rate.

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games20.8 (#23)3.1% (#27)5.4 (#31)213 (#27)6.5 (#28)101 (#26)4.0 (#29)1.9 (#29)
On the Road18.1 (#25)2.5% (#30)4.9 (#31)173 (#31)5.8 (#31)98 (#24)3.8 (#30)1.9 (#25)
At Home23.5 (#17)3.7% (#23)5.9 (#24)253 (#18)7.0 (#21)105 (#22)4.2 (#23)1.9 (#30)
Last 4 Games22.5 (#15)4.4% (#13)5.5 (#26)233 (#18)7.4 (#10)80 (#30)3.1 (#32)1.5 (#14)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games27.6 (#29)4.4% (#19)6.2 (#27)272 (#24)7.5 (#17)126 (#26)4.6 (#19)1.2 (#16)
Road Games24.1 (#20)3.5% (#6)5.8 (#16)251 (#14)7.0 (#8)122 (#19)4.3 (#15)1.5 (#9)
Home Games31.0 (#32)5.3% (#30)6.6 (#31)294 (#30)7.9 (#27)130 (#26)4.9 (#27)1.0 (#25)
Last 4 Games33.5 (#32)5.2% (#29)6.7 (#32)298 (#30)7.8 (#29)120 (#19)4.9 (#26)1.0 (#21)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Le`Veon Bell who is projected to be the #7 RB. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Le`Veon Bell407Nick ChubbJoe Mixon
Sam Darnold1625Matthew StaffordNick Foles
Christopher Herndon5926Darren WallerGeoff Swaim
Robby Anderson6428Dede WestbrookMarvin Jones
Jamal Adams821--Landon Collins
Taylor Bertolet13Justin TuckerRobbie Gould
Ryan Griffin058Jesse JamesJames O`Shaughnessy
C.J. Mosley629Tremaine EdmundsRoquan Smith
Bilal Powell461Justice HillNyheim Hines
Jamison Crowder1663David MooreDeebo Samuel
NY Jets Defense2526San Francisco DefenseNY Giants Defense