NFL Picks: Lamar Jackson Leads Ravens to Huge Win

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Sunday, November 18, 2018

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Ravens 25 and Bengals 19, and Baltimore is winning 62% of the sims. At -250 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied proability to win is 71 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Ravens to win. In their last 5 matchups the Bengals are 3-2. In these games, the Bengals averaged 21 and the Ravens 20 ppg. The projection based point spread is BAL -6. Bettors seem to be favoring the Ravens as the Vegas line has moved from -3.5 to -5.5. The Ravens have a record of 8-10-0 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 8-6-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Bengals are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Ravens. The Ravens were favored by an average of -2.5 points in these games but the Bengals won by an average of 1.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals4419.219.232%37%21.2 (3 Wins)
Baltimore Ravens-5.524.825.268%62%19.8 (2 Wins)

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Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Falcons. The projected score is Falcons 26 and Cowboys 25, and Atlanta is winning 53% of simulations. At -179 on the moneyline, the Falcons implied proability to win is 64 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Atlanta won their lone matchup in recent seasons 27 to 7. The projection based point spread is ATL -1.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Falcons are 9-12-0. As an underdog, the Cowboys are 8-6-1. In their last match-up (ATL won by 20) Atlanta covered the spread. The Falcons were -3.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Cowboys5023.524.838%46%7.0 (0 Wins)
Atlanta Falcons-3.026.526.362%53%27.0 (1 Win)

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Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions

The Panthers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Panthers 27 and Lions 25, with Carolina winning 55% of the latest sims. At -200 on the moneyline, the Panthers implied probability to win is 67 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Carolina won their lone matchup in recent seasons 27 to 24. The projection based point spread is CAR -2.5. More of the action seems to be on the Panthers as the Vegas line has moved from +3 to 4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Panthers are 7-7-0. As an underdog, the Lions are 6-7-0. In their last match-up (CAR won by 3) , Carolina covered the spread. The Lions were -2 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Panthers49.526.827.465%55%27.0 (1 Win)
Detroit Lions+4.022.725.135%45%24.0 (0 Wins)

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Houston Texans vs Washington Redskins

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Texans. The projected score is Texans 24 and Redskins 23, with Houston being given a 51% chance of winning. The Texans are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at HOU -1. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening WAS +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Texans are 4-7-0. As an underdog, the Redskins are 9-7-0. The Texans are 3-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Redskins are 3-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans4222.523.958%51%--
Washington Redskins+3.019.523.442%49%--

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Giants. The projected score is Giants 26 and Buccaneers 25, with New York winning 52% of the time. The Giants are -143 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Giants based on how the moneyline is moving. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 25 to 23. The computer would set the spread at NYG -1. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Giants are 5-6-1. As an underdog, the Buccaneers are 6-8-1. In their last match-up (TB won by 2) New York covered the spread. The Buccaneers were -2.5 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5325.025.243%47%25.0 (1 Win)
New York Giants-3.028.026.357%52%23.0 (0 Wins)

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Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

The odds favor the Colts, and the sims are solidly on the Colts as well. The projected score is Colts 28 and Titans 22, with Indianapolis winning 61% of the time. The moneyline for the Colts is -130 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Titans averaged 25 and the Colts 24 ppg. The computer would set the spread at IND -5. With more action on the Titans, oddsmakers have moved the line from +3 to +1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Colts are 7-4-1. As an underdog, the Titans are 9-4-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Titans -2.8 and they won by an average of 0.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans5124.822.546%39%24.8 (2 Wins)
Indianapolis Colts-1.526.227.654%61%24.0 (2 Wins)

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The odds and our simulations favor the Steelers over the Jaguars despite being on the road. The projected score is Steelers 26 and Jaguars 20, with Pittsburgh being given a 63% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Steelers is -250 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Jaguars have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Jaguars averaged 38 points per game and the Steelers 26. The computer would set the spread at PIT -5.5. More of the action seems to be on the Steelers as the Vegas line has moved from +3.5 to 5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Steelers are 9-12-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 6-4-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Jaguars are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Steelers. The average point spread in these games was Steelers -7.2 but the Jaguars won by an average of 12 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers46.525.826.068%63%25.5 (0 Wins)
Jacksonville Jaguars+5.020.720.332%36%37.5 (2 Wins)

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Oakland Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds and our simulations favor the Cardinals over the Raiders. The projected score is Cardinals 24 and Raiders 18, and Arizona is winning 65% of simulations. The Cardinals are -233 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 70 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Cardinals based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is ARI -6. More of the action seems to be on the Cardinals with the Vegas line moving from -4 to -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cardinals are 7-11-0. As an underdog, the Raiders are 4-11-1. The Raiders are 1-4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Cardinals are 3-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oakland Raiders4117.817.833%35%--
Arizona Cardinals-5.523.224.067%65%--

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Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Chargers over the Broncos. The projected score is Chargers 28 and Broncos 20, and Los Angeles is winning 68% of the sims. At -333 on the moneyline, the Chargers implied proability to win is 77 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Chargers averaged 20 points per game and the Broncos 16. The projection based point spread is LAC -8.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The Chargers have a record of 7-7-1 as a favorite. The Broncos have a record of 4-7-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Chargers are 2-1-1 against the spread vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -2.6 but the Chargers won by an average of 4.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos46.519.819.626%31%16.0 (2 Wins)
Los Angeles Chargers-7.026.728.274%68%20.5 (2 Wins)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints

The Saints are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Saints 34 and Eagles 26, and New Orleans is winning 66% of simulations. The moneyline for the Saints is -345 which translates to 78 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is NO -8.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Saints as the Vegas line has moved from -7 to -7.5. The Saints have a record of 12-6-0 as a favorite. The Eagles have a record of 9-7-0 as an underdog. The Eagles are 2-2-0 ATS on the road this season. The Saints are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Eagles5624.226.126%34%--
New Orleans Saints-7.531.834.474%66%--

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Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

The odds favor the Bears, and the sims are solidly on the Bears as well. The projected score is Bears 24 and Vikings 20, and Chicago is winning 61% of the sims. At -135 on the moneyline, the Bears implied proability to win is 57 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Vikings to win. The Vikings have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Vikings averaged 23 and the Bears 14 ppg. The projection based point spread is CHI -5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Vikings with the Vegas moving from +3 to +2.5. The Bears have a record of 6-4-0 as a favorite. The Vikings have a record of 6-5-1 as an underdog. While they may be 1-3 straight up in previous matchups, the Bears have been better against the spread. The Bears are 2-1-1 against the spread vs the Vikings. The average point spread in these games was Vikings -7.1 and they won by an average of 8.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Vikings4420.819.645%38%22.8 (3 Wins)
Chicago Bears-2.523.224.555%61%14.2 (1 Win)

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Monday, November 19, 2018

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Rams. The projected score is Rams 34 and Chiefs 33, and Los Angeles is winning 52% of simulations. The moneyline for the Rams is -179 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Rams based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAR -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Rams as the Vegas line has moved from -3 to -3.5. The Rams have a record of 4-5-1 as a favorite. The Chiefs have a record of 9-3-0 as an underdog. The Chiefs are 5-0-0 ATS on the road this season. The Rams are 2-2-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs6329.832.837%47%--
Los Angeles Rams-3.533.233.963%52%--

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