NFL Picks: Mariota and Titans (With Win) Catch Lamar Jackson and Ravens (With Loss) on Saturday?

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Saturday, December 22, 2018

Washington Redskins vs Tennessee Titans

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Titans over the Redskins. The projected score is Titans 25 and Redskins 15, and Tennessee is winning 73% of the sims. The moneyline for the Titans is -550 which translates to 85 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is TEN -10. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -10. The Titans have a record of 2-2-0 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 7-4-0 as an underdog. The Redskins are 4-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Titans are 4-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins37.513.815.018%27%--
Tennessee Titans-10.023.725.082%73%--

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Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Chargers to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Chargers 25 and Ravens 22, and Los Angeles is winning 56% of the sims. The moneyline for the Chargers is -220 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at LAC -3. Bettors seem to be favoring the Ravens with the Vegas moving from +5.5 to +4. The Chargers have a record of 4-5-0 as a favorite. The Ravens have a record of 3-0-0 as an underdog. The Ravens are 4-3-0 ATS on the road this season. The Chargers are 2-4-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens4219.021.835%43%--
Los Angeles Chargers-4.023.024.765%56%--

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Sunday, December 23, 2018

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Colts over the Giants. The projected score is Colts 30 and Giants 22, and Indianapolis is winning 68% of the sims. The Colts are -455 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 82 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at IND -8.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Colts are 4-2-1. As an underdog, the Giants are 6-6-0. The Giants are 6-1-0 ATS on the road this season. The Colts are 3-3-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants4819.221.522%31%--
Indianapolis Colts-9.528.830.278%68%--

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Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Eagles. The projected score is Eagles 26 and Texans 25, with Philadelphia winning 53% of the time. The Eagles are -130 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Eagles since the moneyline is moving that way. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is PHI -2. The Eagles opened as +1.5 underdogs and are now -1.5 favorites so more bettors seem to be on them to cover. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Eagles are 3-7-0. As an underdog, the Texans are 2-1-0. The Texans are 3-3-1 ATS on the road this season. The Eagles are 2-5-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans4622.224.646%46%--
Philadelphia Eagles-1.523.826.454%53%--

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Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets

The odds favor the Packers, and the sims are solidly on the Packers as well. The projected score is Packers 26 and Jets 24, and Green Bay is winning 54% of simulations. The moneyline for the Packers is -147 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is GB -2. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening NYJ +3. The Packers have a record of 3-4-0 as a favorite. The Jets have a record of 4-6-1 as an underdog. The Packers are 1-5-1 ATS on the road this season. The Jets are 2-4-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers46.524.825.857%54%--
New York Jets+3.021.723.943%45%--

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Patriots over the Bills. The projected score is Patriots 31 and Bills 16, with New England winning 84% of the time. The moneyline for the Patriots is -835 which translates to 89 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Patriots have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Patriots averaged 25 points per game and the Bills 13. The computer would set the spread at NE -15. More of the action seems to be on the Patriots with the Vegas line moving from -10.5 to -13.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Patriots are 8-6-0. As an underdog, the Bills are 5-7-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Patriots have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Bills. The Patriots were favored by an average of -2.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 12 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills44.515.516.015%16%13.2 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-13.529.031.085%84%25.2 (4 Wins)

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Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

The odds and our simulations favor the Vikings over the Lions despite being on the road. The projected score is Vikings 24 and Lions 20, and Minnesota is winning 60% of simulations. At -286 on the moneyline, the Vikings implied probability to win is 74 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Vikings to win. Head-to-head, the Lions are 3-2. In these games, the Vikings averaged 18 and the Lions 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIN -4. More of the action seems to be on the Vikings as the Vegas line has moved from +4 to 6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Vikings are 5-2-1. As an underdog, the Lions are 5-4-0. While they may be 2-3 straight up vs the Lions, the Vikings have been better against the spread. The Vikings have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Lions. The average point spread in these games was Vikings -0.9 and they won by an average of 1.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Vikings42.524.224.471%60%18.0 (2 Wins)
Detroit Lions+6.018.320.229%39%16.8 (3 Wins)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Cowboys to win the game. The projected score is Cowboys 28 and Buccaneers 20, with Dallas winning 67% of the time. The moneyline for the Cowboys is -315 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Dallas won their lone matchup in recent seasons 26 to 20. The computer would set the spread at DAL -7.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The Cowboys have a record of 3-3-0 as a favorite. The Buccaneers have a record of 5-4-1 as an underdog.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Buccaneers4820.520.427%33%20.0 (0 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-7.027.528.073%67%26.0 (1 Win)

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Dolphins to win the game. The projected score is Dolphins 24 and Jaguars 18, and Miami is winning 62% of simulations. At -200 on the moneyline, the Dolphins implied proability to win is 67 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Jaguars since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at MIA -5.5. With more action on the Jaguars, oddsmakers have moved the line from +4 to +3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Dolphins are 3-0-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 2-3-2. The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS on the road this season. The Dolphins are 6-1-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Jacksonville Jaguars3817.218.436%37%--
Miami Dolphins-3.520.823.864%62%--

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Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

The odds favor the Falcons, and the sims are solidly on the Falcons as well. The projected score is Falcons 26 and Panthers 24, with Atlanta being given a 54% chance of winning. At -152 on the moneyline, the Falcons implied probability to win is 60 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Falcons since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Falcons going 4-1. In these games, the Falcons averaged 30 and the Panthers 21 ppg. The projection based point spread is ATL -2.5. With the Falcons going from a +3.5 underdog to a -3 favorite, bettors are heavy on them to cover. The Falcons have a record of 3-6-0 as a favorite. The Panthers have a record of 3-2-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Falcons are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Panthers. The average point spread in these games was Falcons -1.1 and they won by an average of 9.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons44.523.826.258%54%30.2 (4 Wins)
Carolina Panthers+3.020.723.942%45%20.6 (1 Win)

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

The Browns are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Browns 27 and Bengals 19, with Cleveland winning 69% of the time. The Browns are -455 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 82 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Browns since the moneyline is moving that way. The Bengals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Bengals averaged 27 and the Browns 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at CLE -8.5. More of the action seems to be on the Browns with the Vegas line moving from -6.5 to -10. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Browns are 1-1-0. As an underdog, the Bengals are 4-4-0. The average spread in these 5 games was a pick 'em (zero points) and the Bengals won by an average of 10 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals4417.018.822%30%27.0 (4 Wins)
Cleveland Browns-10.027.027.478%69%17.0 (1 Win)

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Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers

The Bears are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Bears 25 and 49ers 23, and Chicago is winning 55% of simulations. At -225 on the moneyline, the Bears implied probability to win is 69 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bears averaged 20 and the 49ers 10 ppg. The projection based point spread is CHI -2.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bears as the Vegas line has moved from +3.5 to 4.5. The Bears have a record of 8-3-0 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 5-5-0 as an underdog. The average spread in these 2 games was a pick 'em (zero points) and the Bears won by an average of 9.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bears4323.825.466%55%20.0 (1 Win)
San Francisco 49ers+4.519.223.034%44%10.5 (1 Win)

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Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Rams to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Rams 32 and Cardinals 16, and Los Angeles is winning 81% of simulations. The moneyline for the Rams is -909 which translates to 90 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Cardinals since the moneyline is moving that way. The Rams have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Rams averaged 24 and the Cardinals 15 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAR -15.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Rams as the Vegas line has moved from +13.5 to 14.5. The Rams have a record of 5-7-2 as a favorite. The Cardinals have a record of 6-5-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rams have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Cardinals. The average point spread in these games was Rams -2.4 and they won by an average of 9.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams4429.231.586%81%24.4 (4 Wins)
Arizona Cardinals+14.514.816.214%19%14.6 (1 Win)

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Saints to win the game. The projected score is Saints 31 and Steelers 23, with New Orleans winning 64% of the time. At -286 on the moneyline, the Saints implied proability to win is 74 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NO -7. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 7-4-0. As an underdog, the Steelers are 4-0-0. The Steelers are 3-3-1 ATS on the road this season. The Saints are 4-2-0 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers5323.223.429%35%--
New Orleans Saints-6.529.830.671%64%--

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Chiefs. The projected score is Chiefs 29 and Seahawks 27, and Kansas City is winning 53% of simulations. At -135 on the moneyline, the Chiefs implied probability to win is 57 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is KC -1.5. More of the action seems to be on the Chiefs as the Vegas line has moved from +2 to 2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 5-5-0. As an underdog, the Seahawks are 4-1-1. The Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS on the road this season. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS at home this season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs54.528.528.655%53%--
Seattle Seahawks+2.526.027.145%47%--

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Monday, December 24, 2018

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

The odds favor the Broncos, and the sims are solidly on the Broncos as well. The projected score is Broncos 27 and Raiders 22, with Denver winning 61% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Broncos is -156 which translates to 61 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Broncos are 3-2. In these games, the Broncos averaged 19 and the Raiders 17 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DEN -5. More of the action seems to be on the Broncos as the Vegas line has moved from +2.5 to 3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Broncos are 2-5-1. As an underdog, the Raiders are 4-8-0. While they may be 2-3 straight up in previous matchups, the Raiders have been better against the spread. The Raiders have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -1.2 and they won by an average of 1.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos4323.026.659%61%18.8 (3 Wins)
Oakland Raiders+3.020.021.741%39%17.2 (2 Wins)

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